Today’s News

The Big Picture

• Will-they, won’t-they continues in the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, Iran declared the Strait “completely open”. Then President Trump posted the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in effect, “as it pertains to Iran, until an agreement between Washington and Tehran is ‘100% COMPLETE’.” Iran then reversed its decision and by Sunday was again attacking tankers passing through the Strait. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• US market hits all-time high. The optimism on Friday around the Strait of Hormuz reopening saw the US stock market hit all time highs. The S&P 500 index was up 1.2%, breaking 7,100 for the first time ever. Meanwhile, oil prices fell dramatically, with Brent Crude dropping 10% to $90 a barrel. (NY Times)
  
  

• Signs of slowing in Australian housing. Sydney and Melbourne are in a downturn for the first time since the start of COVID, but continued growth in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth has seen the value of combined capital cities still rise 0.3%. This weekend’s auction clearance rate came in at 59%, the third consecutive week it came in at less than 60%. (AFR)
  
  

• Australians fuel spending has dropped over the past two weeks. Data from Westpac showed that spending on fuel dropped 4% last week, after dropping 18% the week before. Prior to the past 2 weeks, spending on fuel had risen each week since the start of the Iran conflict. While part of this spending drop is due to the cutting of the fuel excise, it is also a story of demand destruction - as higher costs see Australians look for alternatives to driving. (Capital Brief)

Companies in the news

• Claude’s latest target: Designers. The company behind the AI chatbot Claude has launched its latest feature - Claude Design. The product allows anyone to produce product designs, slides, social media posts and other design material from a text prompt. Shares of design platform Figma dropped 7% after Anthropic announced the new product. (Sherwood)
  
  

• Fear builds around Anthropic’s Mythos. The company behind Claude has delayed releasing its latest AI model - Mythos - after it was able to find a large number of previously undiscovered vulnerabilities in important websites and platforms. Anthropic has given advanced access to cybersecurity companies so they can patch any key vulnerabilities. The fear Mythos has created has reached the highest levels of politics, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei meeting White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday. (BBC)

  
  

• Profit at TSMC rises 58%. The maker of the world’s most advanced semiconductors beat estimates for its quarterly earnings as the demand for AI chips continues its record run. Profit grew faster than revenue, a sign of improving profit margins, with revenue up 35% year-on-year. (CNBC)
  
  

• Zip posts record result. The Australian Buy Now, Pay Later platform reported a 42% jump in its earnings before interest and tax in the most recent quarter. As a result, shares were up 14% on Friday. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Uber plans European expansion. The ride-sharing and food-delivery platform increased its stake in Delivery Hero, a rival food delivery company, in a deal worth US$318 million. Uber plans to expand into seven new European markets, including Austria, Denmark, Finland and Norway, and is targeting an additional $1 billion in revenue. (Reuters)
  
  

• OnlyFans reaches $3 billion valuation. In a deal to sell a minority stake to American investor Architect Capital, the subscription platform was valued far lower than the reported $8 billion it was discussing last year. In the year ending November 2024 - the latest we have data for - OnlyFans paid $7.2 billion to creators, brought in revenue of $1.4 billion and earned a pre-tax profit of $684 million. (The Guardian)

What the…?

NYC targets the ultra-wealthy with new property tax. New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani has announced the city’s first-ever pied-à-terre tax, an annual levy on luxury properties worth more than $5m that aren’t used as full-time homes. Pied-à-terre are houses or apartments where the resident only lives part-time.

Mamdani unveiled the policy outside a $238m penthouse owned by Citadel CEO Ken Griffin (the world’s 34th richest person), claiming the tax could raise at least $500m for the city. (NY Times | Instagram)

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Today’s Insight

Portfolio Challenge Check-in

On Friday’s episode of Equity Mates Investing, we reconnected with Betashares’ Cam Gleeson to check in on who’s winning the portfolio challenge so far — Ally was out sick, but we covered her portfolio. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

As mentioned at the beginning of the challenge, Bryce, Ren, and Cam all agree that "the best way to invest in a time like this is to think long term", as proven by the current market turbulence, but the quarterly competition forces exactly the opposite behaviour.

The common holding across all four portfolios, DHHF, was down only 3% while most satellite positions fell significantly harder, proving Cam's point that "the will to win meant we went probably a bit further out on the growth spectrum than was sensible."

Cam noted that NDQ is trading at roughly a 9% premium to the S&P 500, a gap not seen in eight or nine years, suggesting potential upside in a relief rally. Meanwhile, his uranium thesis draws on the 1973 oil crisis, when nuclear power grew from 2% to 18% of global energy generation, arguing energy security concerns could drive a similar structural shift today.

The standout risk management lesson: single stocks like Iperian X (down 45%) and Deep Yellow (down 30%) caused the most damage.

Today in Equity Mates