Today’s News

The Big Picture

• Labor bundles tax cuts with CGT and negative gearing changes. The government will package its budget tax cuts and the deduction for salary earners into the same bill as its capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, making it harder for the opposition to block the reforms without also voting against the cuts. PM Anthony Albanese also flagged that business exemptions from the CGT increase would extend beyond the tech start-up sector. (AFR)
  
  

• Auction clearance rates slip as budget spooks property investors. Auction clearance rates have softened following the budget's negative gearing and CGT changes. Experts have warned a shrinking investor pool could reduce rental property supply in established areas, though agents say the pullback may finally give first home buyers a chance to compete. (ABC)

  
  

• ATO cracks down on holiday home tax deductions. Holiday home owners who block out their properties during peak periods like Christmas, Easter and school holidays will lose access to tax deductions on expenses such as mortgage interest and council rates under a new ATO ruling. Owners must limit personal use to minimal off-season periods to prove their property's main purpose is generating income rather than personal leisure. (AFR)
  
  

• Markets rise and oil falls on hopes of Middle East peace deal. Oil prices fell sharply and Asian stock markets rallied after President Trump said a deal with Iran had been "largely negotiated", though he followed up the next day urging his negotiating team not to rush. Trump has previously indicated any deal would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. (BBC)
  
  

• Australians become more risk-averse with work and home mobility. Job mobility has fallen sharply, with just one in thirteen workers changing jobs in the year to February 2025 compared to one in five in 1989 and one in nine in 2005. AI fears, global uncertainty and a tightening jobs market has made Australians increasingly reluctant to take risks. (ABC)
  
  

• Young Aussies ditching big Super for SMSFs. SMSF growth surged 91% in 2024-25, with people under 45 accounting for half of all new funds, driven by a desire for greater control and the ability to invest in digital assets like crypto, which most mainstream super funds don't allow. With $2.3 trillion set to flow to Australians under 50 through inheritance by 2040, industry funds face a race to respond before that wealth transfer supercharges the shift to SMSFs even further. (AFR)
  

Companies in the news

• Qantas' non-stop Sydney to London flight hits another delay. The airlines plan to fly non-stop between Sydney and London has suffered another setback after Airbus confirmed the specially equipped A350 aircraft needed for the 22-hour journey will not arrive by the end of the year as planned. The planes are the centrepiece of Qantas' $15 billion fleet and the key to Project Sunrise. (AFR)
  
  

• Short sellers make US$2.3bn betting against online gambling. Hedge fund short sellers have earned around $2.3 billion in profits this year betting against online gambling companies. Flutter, DraftKings and Entain are all feeling the pinch due to the rapid rise of US prediction markets. (FT)
  
  

• CBA's Anthropic bet up nearly 15x in one year. Commonwealth Bank's investment in Anthropic, made in March 2025 when the AI company was valued at US$61.5 billion, is now worth close to 15 times its previous value. Reports have recently emerged that Anthropic is raising fresh funds at a valuation north of US$900 billion. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• WiseTech CEO threatened with violence amid redundancy backlash. WiseTech Global CEO Zubin Appoo has received threats of violence as tensions rise at the logistics software company following 2,000 redundancies. Founder Richard White linked the replacing staff with AI as well as a lack of communication around the cuts has created a deep rift between staff and management. (AFR)
  
  

What the…?

Barclays predicts China's shrinking workforce to be replaced by humanoid robots. The British bank estimates China could deploy 24 million humanoid robots by 2035, which would be equivalent to 4% of its current labour force. The country's population is slowly beginning to decline after decades of growth and is projected to shrink by 37 million by 2035.

China already accounts for 85% of global humanoid robot installations and is expected to maintain that dominance, with the robots set to take on much of the work in the country's $5 trillion manufacturing sector. (Barclays)

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Today’s Insight

What SpaceX’s IPO tells us

SpaceX has filed its prospectus ahead of its IPO, and the numbers inside it tell a story that might surprise anyone potential investors. Bryce and Ren dug through it on a recent episode of Equity Mates Investing. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

SpaceX is no longer just a space company. 

The business now operates across three segments: space (rocket launches), connectivity (Starlink), and AI (which includes Grok and X). Of the $10.1 billion it spent in a single quarter, $7.7 billion went to the AI segment. Space received just $1 billion.

That capital allocation reflects where management sees the opportunity. SpaceX puts its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. Of that, $26.5 trillion is attributed to AI. Space comes in at $370 billion, the smallest segment by a significant margin.

As Bryce put it - if you are investing in SpaceX because of the space thematic, you need to ask yourself whether this is actually the pure play you thought it was.

The financials are what you would expect from a company investing aggressively for growth. 2025 revenue was $18.7 billion, total costs were $21.2 billion, with a total loss for the year of just under $5 billion. The valuation being targeted is around $1.75 trillion.

The mission statement alone, to make life multiplanetary and extend the light of consciousness to the stars, signals the scale of what Elon Musk is attempting to build. Whether that ambition justifies the price is the question every potential investor has to answer for themselves.

Today in Equity Mates