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Here’s what you need to know today

• Debate over the proposed $3 million Superannuation tax is heating up. While there appears to be growing consensus around reducing tax concessions after accounts grow above a certain threshold, the sticking points remain (1) taxing unrealised gains and (2) not indexing the $3 million cap. The tax has passed the House of Representatives but continues to be debated in the Senate. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• One of the biggest winners from the trade war so far? Australian almond farmers. California almond growers supply 80% of the world’s almonds. But with American almonds facing a 35% tariff in China, Australian growers are enjoying their highest prices in over a decade. (AFR)
  
  

• The Port of Darwin has become a point of tension in Sino-Australian relations. Landbridge, a Chinese company, was granted a 99 year lease over the port in 2015 (a move criticised by President Obama at the time). Now Prime Minister Albanese has vowed to bring the port back under Australian control, which China’s Ambassador Xiao Qian has called “ethically questionable”. (ABC)
  
  

• The Australian Energy Regulator has released its default market offer pricing for the next financial year. The largest price rises will be felt by customers in parts of NSW, where prices will rise up to 9.7%, and in parts of Victoria, where prices will rise up to 5%. (SBS)
  
  

• REA Group, owner of RealEstate.com.au, has confirmed it has received a request for information from Australia’s competition watchdog the ACCC. The ACCC is investigating whether the News Corp-owned platform has been misusing its market power and unreasonably raising prices. (AFR)
  
  

• The European Union has agreed to fast track trade negotiations with the US. In return, President Trump agreed to delay the implementation of his threatened 50% tariff from 1 June to 9 July. (WSJ)
  
  

• Russia has responded to President Trump calling President Putin “absolutely crazy” by suggesting the American President was having “emotional reactions”. Meanwhile Ukraine’s foreign-intelligence chief accused China of supplying Russia with machines, chemicals and gunpowder for its war effort. China denies these claims. (NBC)
  
  

• Germany has followed France, Canada and the UK and become the latest Israeli ally to criticise Israel’s actions in Gaza. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that “to harm the civilian population to such an extent…can no longer be justified as a fight against Hamas terrorism.” The comments are notable as Germany is traditionally one of Israel’s strongest European allies. (Reuters)
  
  

• Swedish carmaker Volvo announced plans to cut 3,000 jobs, around 7% of its workforce, in an effort to protect profit margins. The carmaker’s profit fell 60% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. (Reuters)
  
  

• Bitcoin 2025, a cryptocurrency conference in Las Vegas, kicks off this week with a big lineup of speakers. US Vice-President JD Vance, Trump’s crypto tsar David Sachs and Trump children Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump will all be speaking. The conference comes the same week that the Financial Times reported Trump Media and Technology Group, the company behind Truth Social, will be raising US$3 billion to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. (Financial Times)

What the…?

Meet Corleo, the latest machine from Japanese motorcycle maker Kawasaki. Corleo is basically a robotic horse able to carry up to 2 people. A pair of handlebars serve as reins, which the rider will control with very subtle movements, and four multi-jointed legs are powered by electric motors.

What is the use case for robotic horses? We’re not exactly sure. But turns out they’re not the only company building robotic animals. Chinese company Xpeng is working on a small robotic pony for children and America’s Boston Dynamics have sold more than 1,500 versions of Spot, its four-legged, dog-like robot. (The Economist)

Investing is a lifelong journey

Here’s what you can learn today.

Finding the best active managers

This is an excerpt from our conversation with Jared Pohl, partner and portfolio manager at ECP Asset Management, on Equity Mates Investing podcast (Apple | Spotify)

How can retail investors identify the subset of active managers who consistently outperform?

First, find fund managers that suit your personality. If you’re more optimistic, maybe growth is better. They should articulate where they take risk, why, and how they get paid for it. If they say they’re growth and the portfolio is value or momentum, something’s off. It’s hard to assess alpha generation, but if they do what they say they’ll do, that’s a good sign. Then look at long-term performance. In our small cap product, it's about 9.5% alpha over 10 years. In our all-cap Australian product, it’s around 5%. Long track records of consistent alpha generation matter. But if you don’t understand what they’re doing, don’t invest with them.

How long should investors assess performance to judge a fund manager’s effectiveness?

It depends on the strategy. Value is high velocity—you get called away a lot. Whitehaven might be cheap now, but not forever. You rotate often. Maybe shorter-term numbers work better there. Growth takes time to build. Your podcast business is an example—it’s still growing. We have positions we’ve held for 10 years. If you’ve got three to five years of data, you can start assessing whether a manager has structural skill. People use sharp ratios and other measures. But to truly assess, you need to strip out factor exposures, which is hard.

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