Today’s News

The Big Picture

• Australia will not put a 25% royalty on the offshore gas industry. That was the verdict from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as pressure mounts from all sides of Parliament (and the 60% of Australians that supported it in a recent poll). This came after a Parliamentary Committee on the Taxation of Gas Resources heard from both sides of the issue last week. (ABC)
  
  

• Iran and US delay talks. Officials from the US and Iran were scheduled to met in Pakistan again over the weekend. Then President Trump told his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff to skip the trip posting on social media, “too much time wasted on travelling”. What this means for the ceasefire and ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. (AFR)
  
  

• US stock market resets all-time highs. The US market’s strong momentum continues, with the S&P 500 index rising for the fourth consecutive week. In that time it is up 12.5%. (AFR)
  
  

• Israel and Hezbollah both defy Trump’s ceasefire announcement. One day after US President Trump announced a three-week extension to the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Israel launched air strikes in Southern Lebanon and Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at Israeli forces. (Washington Post)
  
  

• China lessens reliance on Nvidia chips. Chinese AI firm DeepSeek previewed its latest open-source model which it claims outperformed all other open-source models (like Meta’s Llama) but still trails top close-source models (like Google’s Gemini). This model is notable as it has been adapted for Huawei’s chips as the US restricts access to Nvidia chips. (Reuters)
  
  

• Some good news for Ukraine. As the war trudges on in its fourth year, a few positive signs are emerging. The defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary cleared the passage of a €90bn European Union support package. Ukraine now produces more drones than Russia and it is using these drones to attack supply lines and energy infrastructure, cutting Russia’s oil exports by 40%. March was also Russia’s worst month of the war, suffering 35,000 casualties as its spring offensive largely stalled. Some positive signs, but still no end in sight. (Al Jazeera)

Companies in the news

• Lithium price surge boosts Pilbara Minerals. The Western Australian lithium miner reported results for the March quarter, headlined by revenue growing 52% and its average realised price per tonne up 61%. The lithium price is up almost 150% in the past year. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Google deepens Anthropic partnership. The tech giant already owns 14% of the company behind Claude, but announced another investment worth up to $40 billion that values Anthropic at $350 billion. Huge demand for Claude has seen Anthropic scrambling to secure computing capacity with Google Cloud announcing it would provide an addition 5 gigawatts worth of compute as part of the deal. (CNBC)
  
  

• Eli Lilly declines PBS listing. After an Australian government committee recommended weight-loss drug Mounjaro join Ozempic on the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme, Eli Lilly declined. The pharmaceutical giant said the price offered by the Australian government was too low and included “unrealistic” conditions. A listing on the PBS sees the Australian government negotiate prices with the drug maker and then offer the drug at the subsidised price of $25 to Australians. (AFR)
  
  

• Meta cuts jobs to fund AI spending. The social media giant is cutting 10% of its workforce, roughly 8,000 jobs, and will close another 6,000 jobs it had open and intended to fill. The cuts are intended to find savings to fund its growing data centre bill. Meta has said it expects to spend between $115-135 billion in capital expenditure this year, almost double the $72 billion it spent last year. (BBC)
  
  

• Lockheed Martin’s surprising fall. The US defence contractor reported profit fell 13% and sales were flat. This came as a surprise as the US government and its European allies ramp up defence spending, but Lockheed reported production delays and cost pressures from tariffs and inflation. (Reuters)
  
  

• Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve Paramount takeover. Shareholders voted in favour of the $110 billion merger that is expected to close later this year, barring any intervention by the regulator. (CNN)

What the…?

Fuzzy fraudsters face the music after their un-bear-able crimes. The California Insurance Department announced that a person wearing a bear costume intentionally damaged three luxury vehicles, which were then fraudulently claimed for insurance payouts totalling $142,000.

The group submitted videos of the “bear” moving around inside the vehicles as evidence in their damage claims. A biologist from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife was called on to determine it was “clearly a human in a bear suit.” Three people pleaded guilty, with a forth still to face the court. (AP)

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Today’s Insight

Buy or Sell with Ally Selby

On last week’s episode of Buy or Sell, Ally Selby hosted fund managers Jun Bei Liu from Ten Cap and Anthony Aboud from Perpetual to cover some stocks and what the fund managers are thinking about them (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) — Sell: At a 27x forward price-earnings ratio, both Jun Bei and Anthony agree it's the world's most expensive bank. It’s high quality but the price has run too far. Earnings are expected to flatline, and longer-term AI-driven job losses could hurt its mortgage book.

Soul Pattinson (ASX: SOL) — Buy: It boasts decades of low-double-digit returns, consistent dividend growth, and a modernised structure. While it trades at a premium, quality management and a strong deal pipeline justify it.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) — Buy: Copper demand is structural, aluminium prices are rising on supply disruption, and China's economy is stabilising. It has new management focused on cost discipline and capital returns and it’s up 58% in 12 months.

Cobram Estate (ASX: CBO) — Buy: Makes up around 75% of Australian domestic olive oil and is replicating that story in the US. Plantations are maturing with no major further capex needed. Earnings are expected to triple over five years, driven by health trends away from seed oils.

Cuscal (ASX: CCL) — Buy: The company owns digital payments infrastructure that clips a ticket on every transaction and is trading at low multiple despite over 20% growth. Recent acquisitions have been strongly earnings-accretive, and an imminent ASX 300 inclusion could act as a near-term boost.

Please keep in mind that these views are the opinions at the guests at the time of recording and could change as facts change. Any advice given is general advice and does not factor your personal circumstances. Equity Mates Media operates under Australian Financial Services License 540697

You can listen to the full episode of Buy or Sell wherever you listen to podcast or watch on YouTube:

Today in Equity Mates