Today’s News

The Big Picture

• Record Aussies visit Japan as dollar hits 40-year high against yen. It might be time to book that Tokyo trip, as the Aussie dollar briefly reached its strongest level against the yen in 40 years earlier in the week. It was helped by rate hikes back home and political shifts in Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi. The move comes as more than one million Australians visited Japan in 2025, a record high. (ABC)

  
  

• ASX briefly hits record high before retreating as ANZ jumps. The ASX200 briefly eclipsed its all-time high yesterday before giving back gains in the afternoon. The move was partly driven by strong results from ANZ, with shares jumping 8% yesterday after profits beat expectations. (AFR)
  
  

• Australian ETF market reaches new record. Australia’s ETF industry continues to grow, with total funds under management hitting a record $336.1bn in January. The sector saw $5.3bn of inflows for the month, it is however still tiny compared to the US market, where ETFs have now surpassed US$13 trillion. (AFR)

  
  

• US short-term outlook improves as jobs data surprises. Fears of a US economic slowdown slightly eased after 130,000 jobs were added, almost double what economists expected. The result supports Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s view that the labour market is stabilising, reducing the need for further rate cuts. (FT)

  
  

• US debt remains the long-term elephant in the room. America’s national debt is forecast to hit US$32.1 trillion by year-end and forecast to nearly double to US$56.2 trillion by 2036. Interest costs are now so large that around one-fifth of all US government revenue will go just to servicing debt. Debt held by the public is also expected to exceed 100% of GDP this year and rise to 120% by 2036, surpassing its post-WWII peak by 2030. (AFR)
  
  

• Britney Spears sells music catalogue rights for $281m. Britney Spears has sold the rights to her music catalogue to independent publisher Primary Wave, which also owns rights to artists like Prince and Stevie Nicks. Music catalogues are becoming increasingly valuable long-term assets in the streaming era. (ABC)
  

Companies in the news

• Earnings season keeps markets on edge. Results continue to drive sharp swings globally. In Australia, AMP fell 28% after a profit drop, while Pro Medicus slid 22% as revenue missed expectations. In the US, Robinhood dropped 9%, Mattel plunged 25% on weak 2026 guidance, and Zillow fell 16% for similar reasons. The takeaway: investors are jittery, and any bad news is spooking markets. (AFR | Reuters)

  
  

• Bill Ackman takes stake in Meta as challenges mount. Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman revealed a large investment in Meta, arguing the stock is trading at a “deeply discounted valuation.” The move comes as Meta faces pressure on multiple fronts, with WhatsApp reportedly blocked in Russia and Instagram’s head appearing in court in Los Angeles for a landmark case against social media companies and their addictive nature. (CNBC | FT | BBC)

  
  

• Kraft Heinz pauses planned company split. Kraft Heinz has put its demerger plans on hold, with the CEO saying current issues are “fixable and within our control.” The company will invest US$600m in an effort to revive its struggling US business. (CNBC)
  
  

• McDonald’s wins over value-conscious US consumers. McDonald's beat earnings expectations, with management saying it has gained share among low-income consumers. The results highlight how cost pressures are pushing Americans toward cheaper food options. (FT)

  
  

• AI headlines roll on in Australia and globally. Anthropic, the maker of Claude, announced plans to expand into Australia following OpenAI’s local launch in December. Meanwhile, Heineken flagged 6,000 job cuts, with its outgoing CEO acknowledging the layoffs are “partly due to AI.” (Capital Brief | CNBC)

What the…?

US debt drama spills into the UN, with America owing 95% of unpaid fees.
The UN’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned the organisation is at risk of “imminent financial collapse” due to unpaid membership fees.

UN officials say more than 95% of the money owed for 2025, around US$2.2bn, is from the US. This also dwarfs every other nation with Venezuela in second place at US$38m, and third is Mexico at US$20m. The US ambassador to the UN flagged in a interview with reporters that the US will make an initial payment on the money it owes in a matter of weeks. (CNBC)

Today’s Insight

The commodities rally with David Bassanese

This was taken from our recent Equity Mates Investing episode titled ‘Inflation, AI, Trump & Gold with David Bassanese’ (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

Bryce: So another big theme at the moment is commodity prices. There's a lot of commentary around that 2026 is the year for commodities here in Australia. At the time of recording, silver down 30%, gold has come off a little bit, but still has had an incredible run. Then there's uranium, copper, tin. What's your view on this broad base commodities rally playing out this year?

David: I think commodities are rallying for different reasons. Firstly, gold started a rally a couple of years ago and really since Russia invaded Ukraine and a lot of Russian assets in US treasuries and US dollars that were held around the world were seized or the Central Bank of Russia couldn't get access to it. We've seen a reaction by other central banks to basically reduce their dependence on US dollars, treasuries and their reserve assets and start buying up gold. So a lot of emerging markets, central banks have been buying gold. That was the initial catalyst for the gold price going up. More recently, you've got Donald Trump's erratic policy making and the US dollar weakening and a trend of selling down US assets, weakening the US dollar, which is adding to the impetus for gold at the moment. So gold could be seen as a hedge against Donald Trump eccentricity.

Otherwise, we've got the green energy transition and so demand for things like copper and uranium are going up because of the increased need for alternatives to coal as a source of energy. If you look at the history of broad commodity booms, you really need a major part of the global economy to industrialise to drive a big commodity boom. So going back to the early 2000s when China entered the World Trade Organisation, its demand for commodities went up, and that's we enjoyed a decade of a commodity boom. Iron ore prices were once over $200 a tonne at one point. I don't see a major source of industrialisation to cause another major commodity boom.

I think you need to be a bit selective in the commodities market. So gold for the reasons I outlined and what we call sort of metals and commodities related to the energy transition, are the things to get into.

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