Here’s what you need to know today

• Bitcoin is officially in a bear market (defined as a decline of 20% or more). The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit US$93,714, down more than 25% from its high of US$126,251 reached last month. Investors pulled almost $2 billion out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last week. (Bloomberg)
  
  

• Mike Cannon-Brookes’ $40 billion SunCable project, that intends to generate solar energy in Australia and supply it to Singapore via 4,300km of undersea cables, is one step closer to existence. The company has signed a 70-year agreement with Traditional Owners to build a 12,000-hectare solar farm on Powell Creek Station, in the Northern Territory. This will be Australia’s largest solar farm. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Australia is claiming credit for the US rolling back tariffs on more than 200 food items, including Australian beef. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the rollback was a “direct result” of advocacy by Don Farrell, Australia’s Trade Minister, as well as three meetings Albanese held with Trump in the past month. We’d argue the Democrats sweeping off-year elections by focusing on ‘affordability’ may have played a bigger role. (AFR)
  
  

• Australia’s National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) continues to grow at a fast pace. Total costs were up 9.5% in the past year, with 10% of children aged between 5 and 7 participating in the scheme. It is particularly high amongst boys, with 16% of 6-year-old boys participants in the scheme. NDIS is already a larger part of the budget than Medicare and is expected to be larger than the Age Pension by 2035. (AFR)
  
  

• The Australian government is reviving the News Media Bargaining Incentive, that is designed to encourage big tech platforms like Google and Meta to enter into agreements with Australian publishers. The government’s proposal, which will undergo four weeks of consultation, will require digital platforms with more than $250 million in annual revenue in Australia to pay 2.25% tax on their Australian revenue, which can be offset by 150% of eligible spending on deals with news publishers. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Westpac has announced it will pause closures of regional bank branches until 2030. It will also pilot a ‘visiting banker’ service where staff will work from council offices or libraries one day each fortnight, with the option to increase visits based on demand. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Australia’s private schools are raising fees by an average of 7% for 2026. The sharpest rise comes from Melbourne’s St Kevin’s, where Year 12 tuition will increase 17%, from $28,900 to $33,790. The most expensive school in Australia remains Geelong Grammar, with Year 12 fees rising 6% to $55,380. In Sydney, Scots College, Cranbrook and SCEGGS Darlinghurst are all expected to cross $50,000 for 2026. (AFR)
  
  

• After a brutal week in the media, the Australian Liberal and National coalition saw their primary vote drop 5 points to 24% in a recent AFR/Redbridge/Accent Research poll. Concerning for Sussan Ley, One Nation’s primary vote rose 4 points to 18% - the highest it has ever been in this poll. Labor’s primary vote was up 4 points to 38%. (AFR)
  
  

• Japan’s economy has contracted for the first time in a year-and-a-half. The economy shrank almost 2% over the past year. The biggest reason was a drop in exports to the US in the face of tariffs. (Reuters)
  
  

• US President Donald Trump has changed his stance on the Epstein Files. In a Truth Social post, President Trump told House Republicans to vote to release files involving Jeffrey Epstein. As President, Trump could just authorise the release of these documents. (CNN)

What the…?

Last week, Zhimin Qian aka the ‘Cryptoqueen’ was sentenced to over 11 years in a British prison after defrauding more than 128,000 people in China. Qian ran the crypto investment scheme from 2014 to 2017 where she siphoned off her clients money. She fled China via Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Maylasia until arriving in the UK with a fake passport.

Police say Qian was found with more than 61,000 Bitcoin which is currently worth over $9.1 billion Australian dollars. It is yet to be determined what will happen to the crypto as a large majority of victims have not been identified. (ABC News | BBC)

This comes as Zhimin Qian went viral after footage of her being arrested in bed by UK police not once, but twice has resurfaced. Talk about waking up on the wrong side of the bed! (2018 arrest footage) (2024 arrest footage)

Investing is a lifelong journey

Here’s what you can learn today

Are we in a stock market bubble?

This question was posed to Alan Pullen, Portfolio Manager at Magellan, in the Equity Mates Investing episode titled ‘The case for and against an AI bubble - Alan Pullen‘ (Apple | Spotify | YouTube)

Question: The big question that is on everyone's lips: are we in a stock market bubble driven by AI?

Alan: It's probably the most important question in markets today. Let's be honest. I actually think there's a fair bit of evidence on both sides of this argument. You can make a pretty strong case if you wanted to that we are in a bubble today in the US AI tech driven bubble, but I actually think there's a fair bit of evidence on the other side as well.

The case for an AI bubble?

Alan: I think you're seeing bubble like characteristics in the AI startup scene. Not so much in the listed market, but you're seeing a lot of money go into those AI startups. If you used to work at Open AI, you can raise as much as you want. It’s almost as if an ex-Open AI gardener could raise $5 billion. There's a lot of excessive speculation in that area. So I think there's a lot of capital going into that area. My thinking is that it is just kind of more speculative currently, more driven by hope than fundamentals.

The case against an AI bubble?

Alan: When we do the bottom up analysis of those stocks (the magnificent seven), not for all of them, they're all seven different stocks I should say, but they don't look that bad from a valuation perspective. These are dominant companies. They've grown their revenue as a group by 17% compounded since 2017. That's $3 trillion of revenue, highly profitable, cashflow positive. Even with the CapEx spending, they've still got pretty good cash flows. They are great companies and that's actually the key difference to the dotcom bubble era. Most of them are trading at full but not ridiculous valuations.

Want to watch the full episode with Alan? Check it out on the Equity Mates YouTube channel:

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