Today’s News

The Big Picture

• Trump blockades Hormuz after peace talks fail. After 21 hours of negotiations fell apart, the US Navy will intercept all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to cutoff Iran’s toll revenue, which was up to $2 million per ship. Iran responded, saying ships enforcing a blockade will be in breach of the shaky ceasefire and will be treated as adversaries. Optimism around the ceasefire has receded, with oil prices surging back over $102, the ASX 200 falling 0.6%, and S&P 500 futures dropping 0.8%. (BBC | AFR | Guardian)
  
  

• Treasury adds negative gearing to budget cut hitlist. After Labor indicated cuts to the NDIS last week, the Treasury is examining cuts to various housing tax incentives, which both reduce government revenue and inflate housing prices. Negative gearing is particularly targeted, with restrictions to the number of homes, value of claimable losses, and eligibility criteria all on the table. (AFR)
  
  

• Orbán’s landslide election loss marks major Trump, Putin defeat. The far-right Hungarian leader, a staunch ally of Trump and Putin and 16-year incumbent, has conceded as his opponent is in line to win two thirds of the vote. Opposition leader Péter Magyar will reduce US influence in the region and pledged to improve EU relations, reduce reliance on Russian energy, and unlock €90 billion of EU funding to Ukraine, which Orbán vetoed to support Putin. (ABC | Reuters)
  
  

• Chinese factory gate prices rise for first time since 2022. China’s Producer Price Index, which measures domestic producers’ selling prices, rose 0.5% year-over-year, its first increase since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict shocked global markets. Despite sluggish domestic demand, supply chain interruptions in the Middle East has made Chinese suppliers more attractive, increasing prices. (FT)
  
  

• China sweettalks Taiwan ahead of Xi-Trump meeting. Flights, TV dramas, and agricultural goods are among the incentives floated in a new 10-point plan proposed by Beijing to Taiwan’s opposition party, KMT. Beijing is cozying up to KMT, creating divisions in Taiwan ahead of Xi Jinping’s meeting with Trump, wherein both leaders will jockey for control of the geopolitically vital nation. (FT)
  
  

Companies in the news

• Murky Firmus deal draws political questioning. Tasmanian MP Tabatha Badger is questioning how data centre firm Firmus secured a major power supply agreement with state-owned Aurora Energy after similar deals were rejected. Very little is known about the state-sanctioned deal, which underpins Firmus’ AI factory plans and is being flaunted in Firmus’ pre-IPO roadshows. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Morgan Stanley downgrades ASX tech stocks on AI disruption fears. The bank released a research note cutting the price targets of several major ASX-listed tech stocks, stating that Australian valuations did not fully account for AI disruption risk. Major price target cuts included Xero (cut 42%), Nuix (cut 33%), and Pro Medicus (cut 27%). (AFR)
  
  

• Uber adds fuel surcharge to all non-EV rides. The ridesharing giant will add 5 cents per kilometre to all trips in response to the fuel crisis, mirroring Didi’s identical surcharge addition last month. Electric vehicles will not be subject to the surcharge. (Guardian)
  
  

• Investors pull $12 billion from GQG despite outperformance. The ASX-listed asset manager’s decision to avoid tech stocks has paid off so far in 2026, but heavy redemptions have seen the firm’s stock fall 12% in the past year. The low-tech strategy sparked withdrawals in 2025 which are now cascading into 2026. (AFR)
  
  

• A2 Milk drops on poor outlook. China supply chain disruptions were blamed for product shortages, which caused the dairy company to cut EBITDA margin expectations by 1.5 percentage points and warn of potential profit shrinkage. Its stock dropped over 12% on the announcement. (AFR)
  
  

• US and Australia team up on Aussie rare earths projects. America’s Export-Import Bank and Export Finance Australia have offered up to $850 million to back a rare earths refinery owned by Tronox Holdings. This is in addition to over $700 million for Ardea Resources’ Kalgoorlie Nickel Project. (Bloomberg)
  
  

• Aston Martin stocks & bonds hit record lows amid cash crunch. The stock is down 90% since listing in 2018, and its bonds are trading at 75% face value, demanding a 20% yield. One investor estimates the luxury carmaker will run out of cash in the second quarter and be forced to raise capital. (FT)

What the…?

Trump’s stock shilling hits new high with spontaneous Palantir promotion. After infamous short seller Michael Burry posted online that Anthropic is “eating Palantir’s lunch”, the US president inexplicably stepped in to support Palantir.

Trump lauded the AI-focused data intelligence firm in a Truth Social post, ensuring to include Palantir’s stock ticker just in case his audience suddenly felt an urge to buy shares. Clearly it worked, as the stock rallied over 5% following the support. (FT)

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Today’s Insight

Early bird gets the returns

We posed a question to financial adviser Alex Thompson from Viola Private Wealth about getting young Australians engaged with their money from an early age.

What’s one thing you wish you could teach every young Australian about money? 

If I could teach every young Australian one thing about money, it is this; get the simple things right and do them consistently over time. It starts with a principle we’ve all heard before, but far fewer people truly live by; spend less than you earn. That gap between your income and your spending is where freedom is created, money isn’t everything but it can help create some level of freedom and independence.

My philosophical view on spending behaviour is that your money should reflect what genuinely matters to you, your values, experiences, and long‑term goals not just material purchases made in pursuit of someone else’s version of success or happiness.

If you’re starting on your investment journey, adopt a long‑term mindset early. Don’t get distracted by short‑term wins or losses, news headlines, or the temptation to chase what’s popular on the internet. Stay patient, remain diversified, and let time do the heavy lifting for you. It sounds super boring but it does work! 

Looking to establish good money habits from a young age for yourself or someone in your life? Fill out the form on our website and we’ll match you with one of our hand-picked advisers to help you get started.

Today in Equity Mates