Today’s News

The Big Picture

• Iran charges Bitcoin tolls for tankers crossing Hormuz. In the wake of Wednesday’s US-Iran ceasefire, Iran will charge a $1-per-barrel toll for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, payable in Bitcoin. The use of cryptocurrency is intended to stop ships from being traced or confiscated due to sanctions. Ships transiting without paying will be destroyed, per an Iranian radio broadcast. (FT)
  
  

• Labor targets burgeoning NDIS ahead of federal budget. A cost-cutting taskforce has been established to advise on possible cuts to the $52 billion program in the leadup to May’s federal budget. NDIS spending grew over 10% last year, above its 8% target, and costs more than Medicare. Social media posts alleging NDIS fraud have gone viral, adding to public calls for cuts. (Guardian)
  
  

• Mexico joins cohort of countries quitting US energy. America’s southern neighbor is the latest nation to seek energy security outside the US, announcing a massive fracking operation to tap into domestic gas reserves. They join Canada, the EU, China, and Asia more broadly in moving away from US energy. (FT | Bloomberg)
  
  

• First Home Guarantee scheme drives up house prices. Homes eligible for the scheme, which offers 5% deposit mortgages, have seen their prices increase by 6.7% in just 6 months, compared to a 3.6% increase for ineligible homes. Cotality’s Tim Lawless, who maintains Cotality’s housing price index, says the scheme boosted home ownership but worsened affordability. (AFR)
  
  

• Trump announces tariffs on countries arming Iran. The US president took to social media to announce a 50% tariff on any country providing weapons to Iran. The legality of this tariff will certainly be questioned immediately given Trump’s past tariff regime was struck down in the Supreme Court. China is also a major supplier of arms to Iran, posing yet another potential trade disruption. (AFR)

Companies in the news

• Anthropic surges past struggling OpenAI. Anthropic reported projected revenue of $30 billion, up $9 billion from 2025. This surpasses OpenAI’s $25 billion run rate, largely due to per-user revenue — Anthropic earns $211 per monthly user, roughly double that of OpenAI. This is reflected in private markets: There is $2 billion of unmet private demand for Anthropic shares, while $600 million of OpenAI shares sit unsold. (AFR | X)
  
  

• Canva snatches up Aussie AI talent ahead of IPO. Canva’s acquisitions of Simtheory and Ortto mark the seventh and eighth AI firms acquired by the Australian graphic design giant since 2024. Canva is flirting with the idea of an IPO and is shoring up its capabilities before going public. (AFR)
  
  

• Meta’s expensive AI lab launches first model. After spending at least $15 billion to rebuild its AI operations, Meta has revealed Muse Spark, an AI model meant to integrate across Meta’s WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook platforms. This is the first model from Meta’s Superintelligence Labs and AI prodigy Alexandr Wang, who were effectively acquired from Wang’s Scale AI. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Investors stake $62 million on biking boom in new 99 Bikes deal. The wealthy Turner family of Flight Centre fame now holds 76% of Australia’s largest bicycle retailer, 99 Bikes. Its parent company, Pedal Group, peaked at a valuation of $252 million during the COVID-era biking boom, but increased competition in the sector has hurt the company, now valued at $131 million in the new deal. (AFR)
  
  

• Ampol offers up service stations to appease competition watchdog. The petrol giant offered to divest from 37 of its stations in its efforts to convince the ACCC to greenlight Ampol’s $1.1 billion acquisition of rival EG Australia. EG boasts 54 stations that would be acquired in the deal, causing the ACCC to believe Ampol’s post-acquisition dominance could lessen competition. (AFR)

What the…?

Australia’s tiniest town is looking for a new manager. With a population of just two, Cooladdi boasts the title of Australia’s smallest town with a postcode, but that population is moving out. The town, which consists of a single four-bedroom home known as the Foxtrap Roadhouse, is up for grabs for just $400,000.

The Roadhouse includes a pub and a post office, and the population of the town is technically equivalent to the number of residents of the Roadhouse. The current owners say the Roadhouse would suit empty nesters, a keen group of young people, or a family looking for a change of pace. (Guardian)

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Today’s Insight

The Secret Sauce: Bottom-Up Research

In a recent episode of Equity Mates Investing, we posed a question to Tobias Bucks, portfolio manager for AusBil’s Global Small Caps Fund, about his bottom-up research. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

Ren: You obviously don't want to share all of your secret sauce, but I'd love for you to explain some of the questions that you ask as part of your bottom-up research.

Tobias: So the first two things we ask are, could you be considered a leader in ESG and could you be considered a niche leader in your industry? And why those two things are important for us is that we invest in niche leaders.

We think if you find a niche leader that the market doesn't like its future, but you think the management team can kick on and there's some head tailwinds, that's the best way to make money. You've got that security of always owning a high quality business.

On the environment, the social and governance issues, for us, it just means a good high quality management team that's focused on what's important for their stakeholders. Particularly in the modern world, ethics or the right way of doing something is important. So we do try and focus on companies where the employees want to be there. The media wants to write nice stuff. Everyone wants to come on the journey. People want to work with them, people want to buy their products.

Today in Equity Mates