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Here’s what you need to know today

• Australian housing is once again in the news after an unredacted Treasury brief accidentally was sent to the ABC. It warned that Australia’s target to build 1.2 million homes over 5 years “won’t be met”. (ABC News) Combine that with the news that Australia’s national auction clearance rate has been above 70% for 5 consecutive weeks and it appears we are getting more of the same for Australian housing: limited supply and excess demand. (AFR)
  
  

• The European Union has held off imposing retaliatory tariffs on American imports, despite America’s threatened 30% tariffs on European imports. President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the bloc would prefer a negotiated solution but warned it was preparing “countermeasures” if negotiations fail. (NY Times)
  
  

• The US and Australia kicked off their biannual war game, named Talisman Sabre. Held every second year since 2005, this exercise will be the largest yet with more than 35,000 troops from 19 countries taking part. The obvious context for this exercise is China’s rise, which we imagine makes the timing awkward for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is halfway through a 6-day trip to China. (The Independent)
  
  

• That wasn’t the only awkward moment for Albanese. When asked about Taiwan by reporters in Shanghai, the Australian Prime Minister said that Australia “supports the status quo” and does not support “any unilateral action”. (ABC News)
  
  

• A collection of large Australian banks and retailers have come together to keep Armaguard afloat. The company, owned by billionaire Lindsay Fox, collects cash and transports it between banks and shops but has warned it is unprofitable and could shut down. A group including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, ANZ, Coles, Woolworths, Bunnings and Australia Post put in $50 million in 2024 to keep it afloat. Now this group is tipping in another $25 million. (AFR)
  
  

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would be willing to resume nuclear talks if America guaranteed it would not attack again. He also reiterated Iran would continue to enrich uranium for civilian purposes. America has insisted it should not. (PBS)
  
  

• An Israeli missile hit a refugee camp in Gaza, killing at least 10 people, including 6 children, who were queueing to collect water. Israel said the missile had malfunctioned and missed its target, with the Israeli Defence Force blaming a “technical error” and said it “regrets any harm to uninvolved civilians.” Gaza’s health ministry reported 139 people were killed in the past 24 hours. (BBC)
  
  

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has just overtaken Warren Buffett to become the world’s seventh-richest person as Nvidia continues growing beyond the $4 trillion valuation it reached last week. Huang is now worth $145 billion. (Quartz)
  
  

• The Bitcoin price keeps rising. Yesterday it reached a new all-time high of $120,000 USD.

What the…?

The four-day workweek remains an elusive dream for millions of workers around the world. Bad news for those workers, after health insurer Bupa and packaged goods giant Unilever both quietly ended their Australian four-day workweek trials.

Bupa started a 9-day fortnight towards the end of 2023 but will be returning to a 10-day fortnight after an 18-month trial. Unilever also wound up a four-day week trial that it had begun in 2022.

There are some Australian companies that are persisting with the 4-day workweek. Both health insurer Medibank and consulting firm Grant Thornton are reportedly continuing with these arrangements. (AFR)

Investing is a lifelong journey

Here’s what you can learn today.

Investing isn’t gambling

This is an excerpt from a recent Ask an Adviser episode on Equity Mates Investing with Alex Luck and Scott Taylor from Everest Wealth. (Apple | Spotify | YouTube)

How can I convince my partner that investing isn’t gambling?

Common question that we get. Where do you start? A good place could be a Vanguard long-term historical chart to show that over time - through down periods like the GFC and COVID - you have been better off and made more money by investing. It would also be just making a start. Even creating an account with a small balance and just not checking it every day, but maybe once a month or something, to show that that $1,000 isn’t going to zero.

I wouldn’t be starting your investment journey with your partner who thinks it’s gambling by going into Bitcoin or speculative mining companies. But if you’re just picking a diversified index, then I think that should give them peace of mind in time. And there’s plenty of tools out there to help convince someone.

We were at a Professional Development day yesterday, and the Australian share market over a decade - 100% of the time - has been positive. If you look at days, it's 50%, so 50% chance of effectively having a positive outcome. If you go to months, then it’s 60%. So the longer you go, the percentage chance of a positive return is greater to the point where it’s 100% if you’re doing over a decade.

So we’re not trying to make money quick. That would be my message. We are just here for the long term. There’s going to be some volatility. Let’s not check it all the time, but we will be better off. And using graphs and stats helps - it’s not a bet, it’s a plan.

Prefer to watch this conversation? Every Equity Mates episode is posted in-full on the Equity Mates YouTube. Check it out:

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