Today’s News

The Big Picture

• CGT changes to sting young investors. Critics warn extending capital gains tax changes to shares and ETFs will disproportionately hurt younger Australians. University of Sydney economist Christian Gillitzer said the changes could drive investors toward dividend-paying stocks, as capital gains will now be taxed more heavily than dividends. (AFR)
  
  

• First home buyers reportedly upbeat at first auctions since budget. First home buyers expressed optimism at Saturday auctions -- the first since Tuesday's budget -- with one successful South Melbourne bidder saying the negative gearing and CGT reforms were "giving us young people a shot at it." An auctioneer described first home buyers as "up and about", saying they now had "a good pathway to enter the market." (ABC)
  
  

• Banks pocketing RBA rate rises. Major banks are failing to pass on the full benefit of recent RBA rate rises to deposit customers, holding back portions of increases to protect profit margins. Commonwealth Bank withheld 10 basis points of the May hike for existing NetBank Saver customers, while several banks are only applying rate rises to bonus rates rather than base rates. (AFR)
  
  

• Trump warns Iran as oil hits $111. Brent crude rose to $111.28 yesterday after President Trump warned Iran that the "clock is ticking" as peace talks stalled. Nearly 80 countries have now introduced emergency economic measures as the world enters what many are describing as a new and more dangerous phase of the Iran war-driven energy crisis. (BBC)
  
  

• Tobacco giant looks to exploit illicit market fears. 15 health groups including the Cancer Council have accused the tobacco industry of using fears around booming illicit cigarette sales to push for excise cuts and unwind health policies. The warning comes after a parliamentary inquiry held a secret hearing for tobacco giant Philip Morris executives, ending more than 15 years of precedent under Australia's WHO agreement. (The Guardian)

Companies in the news

• Westpac and Macquarie move first on negative gearing. The two have become the first of the major banks to respond to the government's negative gearing changes. Macquarie has already told lenders to stop factoring in negative gearing on existing property purchases. This is despite the policy not yet passing as legislation. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• TUAS shares crash 68% yesterday. TUAS, the company run by TPG Telecom founder David Teoh, saw its shares plunge 68% after Singapore's regulator found its mobile brand Simba may have been using unapproved radio frequency bands in breach of local law. The finding has stalled Teoh's $1.4bn bid to acquire Singapore's M1 and put the deal's future in serious doubt. (AFR)
  
  

• Brambles falls 20% in single day. Brambles has downgraded its forecasts after failing to find enough workers in the US to repair wooden pallets. The announcement wiped more than $5.5 billion from the company's market value in its worst single day on the ASX in more than 20 years. (AFR)
  
  

• Anthropic to overtake OpenAI. Anthropic is in talks to raise between US$30-50bn in new funding at a valuation of up to US$950bn, 2.5x its $380 billion valuation just three months ago. The raise would value Anthropic above rival OpenAI, which was valued at US$852bn in a March fundraising round. (NYT)
  
  

• EY Australia to claw back parental leave pay. EY Australia will require employees to repay two months of their six-month parental leave entitlement if they resign within a year of receiving the benefit. A policy taking effect from July 1 that makes the company at odds with other firms in the field. (AFR)
  

What the…?

Pokémon card thefts in Victoria jump 455% in four years. Trading card-related crimes at Victorian retail stores have surged from nine incidents in 2021 to nearly one a week in 2025, forcing Melbourne hobby shops to beef up security and move high-value stock after hours. The spike has driven shop owners to work together, sharing tips on how to avoid being targeted. (ABC)

A message from Ausbil

The Ausbil Active Dividend Income Fund - Active ETF predominantly invests in Australian securities, primarily selected from the S&P/ASX 200 Index. The Fund will generally hold between 25 and 50 listed companies.

Investing in the Fund offers a range of benefits, including: 

• Exposure to Australian companies that provide tax effective dividend income, including franking credits. 

• Regular monthly distributions. 

• Access to Ausbil’s highly experienced investment management team. 

Ask your broker or financial adviser about ASX: DIVI.

*Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Consider the PDS and TMD available at www.ausbil.com.au Ausbil Investment Management Limited ABN 26 076 316 473 AFSL 229722.

Today’s Insight

Mr. Beat-Up unpacks TransMedics (NASDAQ: TMDX)

TransMedics owns 22 planes, keeps donor hearts beating at 35,000 feet, and its stock has fallen two thirds from its highs. We asked Mr. Beat-Up to run it through his four-step checklist on a recent episode of Equity Mates Investing. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

The product is genuinely remarkable. The traditional method of transporting donor organs is an ice box. Hearts last three to four hours. Geographical reach is limited. TransMedics' Organ Care System keeps a heart alive for up to 12 hours and lungs for up to 20, while surgeons at the receiving hospital can monitor the organ in real time before deciding whether to operate. They own the planes, the pilots, the ground vehicles, and the 24/7 command centre. It is an end-to-end transplant logistics business, not just a medical device company.

The moat is real, but so is the complexity. Replicating what TransMedics has built would require a chartered aviation business, clinical perfusionists, and a coordination network built from scratch. Switching costs are high once a transplant centre is integrated. The risk is that the business has become significantly harder to evaluate, and management keeps adding to that complexity, most recently with a European expansion and the acquisition of a German aviation operator.

The bull case hinges on one number. TransMedics did 5,100 organ transports in 2025. Management is targeting 10,000 by 2028. If they get there, Mr. Beat-Up’s back-of-envelope math puts the stock at roughly $190 to $220, against a current price of $64.

The bear case is straightforward. It took them the better part of a decade to reach 5,000 cases. Doubling that in two years while simultaneously expanding into Europe and developing a kidney transplant product is a lot to execute. There is also a corporate governance overhang from a short-seller report, and a class action that could draw regulatory scrutiny of their Medicare billing practices.

Today in Equity Mates