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Here’s what you need to know today

• The Australian stock market had a shocking day. The ASX 200 opened down 6% before recovering a bit to be down 4% for the day. Australia’s largest companies led the falls: Commonwealth Bank down 6%, BHP also down 6% and CSL down 5%. (News.com.au)
  
  

• The Australian dollar fell, dipping below 60 US cents for the first time since COVID. On Friday, the currency suffered its biggest daily fall in 17 years and it continued its slide on Monday. (ABC)
  
  

• Overnight, the US market was a little calmer with the S&P 500 down 1%. Coming after two days where the market was down 5% and then 6% this was a welcome relief for all.
  
  

• However, that calm may not last. US President Trump warned China to rescind its retaliatory tariffs or he would implement an additional 50% tariff starting Wednesday. If implemented this would make the total tariff for Chinese imports into the US 104% (50% this week, 34% last week, and 20% when Trump started his second term). This tit-for-tat escalation between the world’s two largest economies was many economists’ worst fear. (NY Times)
  
  

• Crypto markets were also whacked yesterday, with Bitcoin dipping below $75,000 USD for the first time since the US election in November 2024. The price then recovered slightly to currently sit around $78,500 USD. (Forbes)
  
  

• Australia’s superannuation funds were given a deadline of midday on Monday to notify the regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, if they were hit by a major cyber attack last week. The AFR reported on Friday that AustralianSuper, Australian Retirement Trust, REST, Hostplus and MLC Expand were all hit by the cyberattack with hackers breaking into thousands of superannuation accounts. (AFR)
  
  

• Mixed economic news out of the US. The labor market added more jobs than expected - 228,000 in March - but on the other hand JPMorgan have raised the probability of a recession in the US to 60%. (The Guardian | Reuters)
  
  

• US President Trump isn’t budging on his tariff policy, telling reported the policies will “never change”. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the sharemarket fall was “short-term” and he didn’t expect the measures to cause a recession. (Politico)
  
  

• At the same time, President Trump is trying to put his finger further on the economic scale, posting on his Truth Social “CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!”. The Fed’s next meeting isn’t until early May. (CNBC)
  
  

• Australia’s Star Entertainment has saved itself from bankruptcy with a $300 million deal that will give control to US-based casino giant Bally’s Corporation. While the final details of the deal are not yet fully known, Bally’s original proposal required it gain control of the Australian casino operator. (AFR)
  
  

• A NSW Parliamentary Committee has been established to look into alleged neglect at Australia’s largest for-profit early childcare centres after Greens MP Abigail Boyd used her parliamentary powers to force the regulator to release thousands of pages of departmental documents. (ABC)
  
  

• In Australian election news, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has dumped his policy that would require public servants to work in the office 5-days a week as Labor gained slightly in the latest Newspoll, up 52-48. (SMH | The Conversation)

What the…?

Dan Ives, an analyst at financial services firm Wedbush, has tried to calculate what an iPhone will cost if made in the US. His estimate is that an iPhone model that costs roughly $1,000 today would cost as much as $3,500 when made in the US.

This is why a 34% tariff on China may be devastating for the global economy, but still not enough to make manufacturing in America make sense. (Investing.com)

Investing is a lifelong journey

Here’s what you can learn today.

Don’t panic & stick to the plan!

Community Question: What’s one thing you tell all of your clients?

We put this question to Felicity Thomas, Senior Private Wealth Adviser at Shaw & Partners and cohost of the Talk Money to Me podcast (Apple | Spotify)

This is a great question and even more relevant than ever over the past few years with turbulent market conditions.

One crucial piece of advice that I consistently share with all clients is the importance of keeping emotions out of investment decision making. 

This advice is rooted in the field of behavioural finance, which recognises that human emotions can often lead to irrational and detrimental investment choices. By adhering to this principle, you can stay focused on your financial plan and increase your chances of achieving their long-term financial goals.

Emotions, such as fear, greed, and overconfidence, have the potential to cloud judgment and drive us to make impulsive investment decisions.

During times of market volatility, it is common for investors to panic and sell their investments, driven by the fear of further losses. Conversely, during periods of exuberance, investors may become overly optimistic and chase high-risk, high-reward opportunities, driven by greed.

These emotionally-driven actions can disrupt a well-thought-out financial plan and result in poor investment performance.

The 5 that I want to highlight are: 

• Loss aversion - we tend to dislike losing something more than we enjoy gaining something of the same value

• Confirmation bias - we tend to favour information that supports what we already think and ignore or downplay information that contradicts it

• Herd mentality - people often go along with what others are doing or thinking, even if it might not align with their personal beliefs or judgments

• Overconfidence - people often believe they are more skilled, competent, or knowledgeable than they actually are

• Anchoring bias - we often use an initial reference point, or "anchor," to guide our thinking and subsequent judgments

To counteract these tendencies, it is essential for you to recognise and understand your emotions when making investment decisions.

By being aware of your emotional biases, you can take steps to mitigate their impact. Setting clear investment guidelines and sticking to a well-diversified portfolio can help mitigate the influence of emotions.

By staying disciplined, adhering to your financial plan, and seeking guidance from a trusted financial adviser, you can navigate the ups and downs of the market with a clear focus on your goals.

Markets reward discipline and I think that is why so many investors fail. STICK TO YOUR PLAN!

Interested in speaking to a financial adviser? Fill out the form on our website and we’ll match you with one of our hand-picked financial advisers.

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