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  • 📈 Australia wedged between US and China | Walmart is just as confused as the rest of us

📈 Australia wedged between US and China | Walmart is just as confused as the rest of us

Here's what you need to know today

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Walmart has pulled its Q1 guidance, citing the need to stay nimble as it tries to respond to changing tariffs

Here’s what you need to know today

  • The world spent the day reeling from US President Trump’s announcement last night that he would pause most of his retaliatory tariffs for 90 days and just maintain a 10% universal minimum tariff. The one exception was China, where he increased tariffs to 125% after China upped its tariff on US imports to 84%. (Associated Press)

  • In response to Trump’s announcements, the S&P 500 was up 10% and the Nasdaq had its second best day ever, in percentage terms, up 12%. (Wall Street Journal)

  • In Australia, the ASX 200 was up 5% in response to the good news last night in the US. A big winner was Netwealth, who saw shares jump 17% after the wealth platform reported a 29% increase in funds under administration. (Capital Brief)

  • Asian markets also had a great day on the news of a 90-day pause of tariffs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 9% while South Korea’s Kospi index was up 7%. (CNBC)

  • Unsurprisingly, some of yesterday’s exuberance subsided overnight, as US markets gave back some of those gains. At time of writing, as we near market close, the S&P 500 is down 3.5% for the day.

  • Tariff news overnight: The White House has upped tariffs on Chinese imports once again, now to 145%. Meanwhile, the European Union has announced a 90-day pause on its tariffs, reciprocating America’s pause. (CNBC)

  • It now appears both the US and China are trying to line up allies on their side of the trade war. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has foreshadowed a collective approach with allies to containing China (AFR) while China has reportedly sounded out Australia about forming a united front against Trump’s trade protectionism. (AFR) Australia may soon find itself wedged between its closest ally and its largest trading partner.

  • In the meantime, Australian trade officials are using this moment to revive a potential free trade agreement with the European Union. (AFR)

  • As listed companies enter Q1 earnings season, the uncertainty they are facing is becoming clear. Walmart has scrapped its first-quarter guidance, citing the need to stay nimble in the face of changing tariffs. We expect they won’t be the last company to pull previous guidance. (Quartz)

  • As Iran and America prepare for their scheduled nuclear talks this Saturday, Iran’s foreign minister said Iran was ready to “seal a deal” with America. Iran previously had signed a nuclear deal with President Obama, before Trump ripped it up in 2018. (BBC)

What the…?

Did President Trump manipulate the market? That is the question traders were asking yesterday after he posted on Truth Social “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” at 9:37am local time.

Less than four hours later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs and the S&P 500 jumped 10% higher. There have been ethical questions raised by Democrats but no suggestions of criminality. Just another moment of noise in what is going to be a noisy four years. (AFR)

Investing is a lifelong journey

Here’s what you can learn today.

4 steps to find great stocks

This is an excerpt from our recent episode on Get Started Investing titled ‘4 Simple Steps for Anyone to Pick Great Stocks’ (Apple | Spotify | YouTube)

Alongside the episode, we created our 4-Step Stock Checklist, download it for free.

Ren: We've got to start by asking a question that I think not enough people ask. What game are you playing?

Bryce: There are plenty of ways to make money in the stock market and it's important that you understand the way that you're trying to make money.

You would've heard things like value investing, momentum, looking for quality, looking for growth, technical analysis, day trading, you name it. There are plenty of ways to make money in the stock market and all of them work at different times and people make money in many different ways. But when it comes to understanding what works, they all have different methodologies of going about it.

Ren: And I think to this question that we're answering today, what makes a great stock? They all have different answers to that question. Let's look at a momentum investor, which is a pretty far step removed from what we do. What makes a great stock for them will be a lot of momentum indicators or technical indicators. Their indicators and their criteria are just completely different to what we're going to talk about today. But it's not like they're wrong and we're right or vice versa because we'll make money, they'll make money, whichever game you choose to play, if you play that game well and consistently and in a disciplined way, you can make money in the share market.

So I think it's not about, there's not one right answer to this question, but it is having a clear and consistent answer to this question. The follow up question becomes what game are we playing?

Bryce: We are playing a game of trying to find long-term compounders that are great companies. We are looking for great companies that become great investments. That is the game that we are playing.

Ren: That leads to our four step checklist. So let's hit them briefly and then we'll go into detail.

  • Number one: A company that makes a great product or service

  • Number two: They can earn above market profit from that product or service for years to come.

  • Number three: They can reinvest that profit in productive ways.

  • And then finally: We can buy that company at a reasonable price.

Bryce: Simple. Who needs a finance degree when you have a simple four step checklist like that.

Hear us unpack those four steps in the latest episode of Get Started Investing. Or if you’d prefer to watch, check out the Get Started Investing YouTube channel.

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Want more Equity Mates?

  • Are offices coming back? Will demand for logistics warehouses and data centres every slow down? If you’re wondering what’s happening in the world of commercial property tune in to Equity Mates Investing as we speak to Jason Huljich, cofounder at Centuria. (Apple | Spotify)