Today’s News

The Big Picture

• Australia finally lands EU trade deal. After eight years of negotiations, Australia and the European Union have agreed on a free trade deal expected to add around $10bn annually to the local economy. The agreement removes 99% of tariffs on exports between the regions, excluding steel. Not everyone is celebrating though, with beef and lamb exporters calling the deal “simply appalling”. (AFR | ABC)
  
  

• Trump claims Iran progress. Tehran calls BS. US President Donald Trump says “productive conversations” are underway with Iran to end the war, but Iranian officials deny any talks with the US took place. Iran did confirm discussions with other nations, including Pakistan and Turkey. Oil prices fell below US$100 a barrel and global share markets rebounded on the news. (FT)
  
  

• Consumer confidence hits lowest level on record. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index has fallen to its lowest point since records began in 1972. Just 14% of Australians say they are better off financially than a year ago. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also warned the decades-long growth seen since World War II is unlikely to return anytime soon. (Roy Morgan | Capital Brief)
  
  

• ACCC puts airlines on notice over pricing. The consumer watchdog says it is “closely monitoring” airline pricing and market behaviour to ensure carriers are not breaching competition or consumer laws. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Global oil crunch begins to bite across economies. Oil shortages are starting to ripple through economies worldwide. In Australia, unions are pushing for work-from-home measures to offset rising costs. Slovenia has introduced fuel rationing, while New Zealand is preparing support packages for low-income households. (Yahoo Finance | BBC | The Guardian)

Companies in the news

• War-driven costs push Australian companies to raise prices. Australia Post will double fuel surcharges for some business customers, while Reece Plumbing plans to lift prices on plastic pipes by 36%, citing rising costs linked to the Middle East conflict. (ABC | AFR)
  
  

• Apollo fund limits withdrawals as scrutiny intensifies. US private credit giant Apollo has capped redemptions from a US$15bn fund, with investors receiving just 45% of requested withdrawals. The move comes as ASIC ramps up scrutiny locally, visiting offices and reviewing documents as part of a broader crackdown on the sector. (CNBC | Capital Brief)
  
  

• OnlyFans owner dies, leaving $1.4bn empire in limbo. Leonid Radvinsky has died at age 43 after a battle with cancer. He built OnlyFans into a dominant platform by taking a 20% cut while creators kept 80%. The company generated US$1.4bn in revenue, and Radvinsky paid himself a US$701m dividend in 2024. (BBC)
  
  

• KMD rejects proposal to spin off Rip Curl. KMD Brands has knocked back a proposal from California-based Stokehouse to demerge Rip Curl into a separately listed entity, saying the plan would not create shareholder value and would be difficult to execute. (AFR)
  
  

• Estée Lauder explores $40bn merger with Puig. The cosmetics giant is reportedly in talks with Spanish group Puig to form a $40bn beauty powerhouse, combining brands including Jean Paul Gaultier and Dries Van Noten. Estée Lauder shares fell 7.7% following the news. (FT)

  
  

• Domain and REA gear up for real estate price war. Domain’s parent company CoStar is preparing to undercut market leader REA Group in a bid to gain share. Since acquiring Domain for $2.8bn last year, CoStar has ramped up spending on technology and advertising to fuel the push. (AFR)
  

What the…?

French warship accidentally located… by a jog on Strava. While sailing towards the Middle East, a French sailor couldn’t resist logging a run on fitness app Strava. What they may not have realised is that the upload gave a French newspaper enough data to pinpoint the exact location of France’s flagship aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle. Unsurprisingly, the French armed forces weren’t thrilled. Officials said the incident “did not comply with current instructions” and confirmed steps would be taken to prevent it happening again.

It’s not the first time Strava has created security risks. In France, Strava uploads shared by security personnel protecting President Emmanuel Macron were found to have revealed locations linked to his movements. In the US, Secret Service agents assigned to then-President Joe Biden also inadvertently shared their whereabouts via the app in 2024. (BBC)

A message from Australian Property Scout

Join Sammy Gordon, Equity Mates’ go-to property expert, as he sits down with co-host Jimmy Ibrahim alongside Paul Dem, Brendan Geoghegan and Luke Teeuwsen for this fan-favourite Roundtable episode discussing the Australian housing market heading into 2026.

They unpack key predictions around interest rates, population growth, government policy and the growing divide between renters and homeowners — plus the potential impact of changes like the expanded First Home Buyer Deposit Scheme and capital gains tax discussions.

If you want to stay ahead of the market or better understand where Australia’s property landscape could be heading, this episode is essential listening for investors looking to stay informed.

Available on all your favourite platforms.

Today’s Insight

Ask an Adviser - Market Downturns

Alex Thompson from Viola Private Wealth breaks down how he helps clients during market downturns.

How do you help clients stick to their plan during market downturns?

There’s two core ways we help clients stick to their plan, the first being the education piece. Ensuring we educate clients not only at the beginning of the relationship in terms of risk sources, complementary return drivers and how they all react in certain environments. When clients have a clear framework for understanding volatility and can contextualise short‑term drawdowns within a long‑term plan, they are far less likely to react emotionally. This ongoing education builds confidence and sets realistic expectations well before markets become challenging. Fear comes from the unknown, so ensuring they have a sound understanding of what to expect greatly lowers panic and fear.

The second is acting as a councillor during times of volatility and uncertainty. Despite all the education and understanding, the faith gets put to the test when they see material fluctuations in valuations. This typically raises questions around whether “this time is different,” or whether action needs to be taken. We spend time listening, addressing concerns, and helping clients take the emotion out of it by revisiting the original objectives and anchoring the conversation back to the long-term focus. Ultimately, holding their hand through cycles is imperative not only to help provide peace of mind, but to prevent behavioural mistakes that can permanently impair long‑term wealth. Staying the course is rarely easy in real time, but it is often the most important factor of long‑term success

Want to work with an adviser like Alex and incorporate diversification into your portfolio? Fill out the form on our website and we’ll match you with one of our hand-picked advisers.

Today in Equity Mates