📈 Startups rejoice: Albo walks back CGT changes | DeepSeek dodges blacklist amid US-China negotiations

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The Big Picture

• Albo backs down on CGT changes for small businesses. The PM and Treasurer Chalmers announced the eligibility for a 50% CGT concession for small businesses will be increased from $2 million in revenue to $10 million. Designated “innovative businesses” will also retain the 50% CGT discount for owners and equity-holding employees. (AFR)
  
  

• New Fed chair holds rates, declares war on inflation. Kevin Warsh vowed to deliver price stability, insinuating potential rate hikes as US inflation hit a three-year high this week. This came as a surprise from the Trump appointee due to Trump’s pro-rate cut attitude. Investors balked at the possible rate hikes, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.2%. (FT)
  
  

• RBA, APRA urge banks to prepare for geopolitical risks. Armed conflict, cyber attacks, weakened trade and financial market volatility were among the risks APRA identified in its letter to financial institutions Wednesday as top priorities for preparation. Senior APRA and RBA officials reaffirmed this message at a banking conference yesterday. (APRA | AFR)
  
  

• Regulator takes aim at dodgy private credit valuations. After an eight-week probe into Australian private credit, ASIC is preparing to crack down on funds’ EOFY self-reported valuations if they do not “ reflect current conditions and incorporate verified accurate information”. This follows ASIC’s November private credit report, which identified poor practices. (AFR | AFR | ASIC)
  
  

• Immigration hits three-year low amid One Nation pressure. Net migration fell to 301,000 in 2025, an increase of 1.5%. Pauline Hanson and One Nation’s anti-immigration sentiment has soared in popularity recently amid economic pressures, and Labor’s recent budget looks to bring net migration down to 225,000 by 2027-28. (AFR)

Companies in the news

• DeepSeek escapes blacklist as US seeks Chinese favour. The Chinese AI firm, along with over 100 other Chinese firms, were identified as potential additions to a government blacklist, but the Trump administration decided to hold off on adding them as Trump works with Beijing to open up China to American businesses. DeepSeek rivals Claude and ChatGPT and currently operates at a lower per-token cost basis. (TNW)
  
  

• HSBC to pay $35m fine for systemic scam failures. ASIC sued the bank for widespread failures to prevent customers from being scammed. HSBC admitted it did not have appropriate controls in place and that it knew scammers were impersonating the bank. (AFR)
  
  

• Private equity firm suffers $7bn software wipeout. Thoma Bravo, the world’s largest software-focused investment firm, will hand over struggling software group Medallia to a private credit consortium, losing its entire $7 billion investment in what will be one of the worst wipeouts in private equity history. (FT)
  
  

• New AI tools beat doctors, but risks prevent replacement. German-built Mira and Google-developed Amie both outperformed doctors in diagnosing and treating illnesses. However, AI diagnostic errors would shift blame from doctors to the hospital implementing the AI tool, a risk hospitals appear unready to assume. (FT | News Medical)
  
  

• Moderna stock surges as FDA looks to approve flu shot. The pharmaceutical giant saw its stock rise 12% yesterday after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) posted documents indicating Moderna’s flu shot would be approved for use. The FDA will officially make a decision 5 August. (IBD)

Have you got your ticket to FinFest 2026?

Early Bird Tickets are selling fast! Don’t miss Australia’s largest finance festival.

Across 5 stages, we’re going to have some of the best speakers and finance experts unpacking how everyone can take control of their money. Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced investor - there will be plenty there for you.

24 October. Carriageworks, Sydney. Secure your tickets today.

Japan takes on ice cream cartel

After experiencing its hottest summer on record, Japan’s Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) has taken aim at some of the country’s greatest public menaces: price-fixing ice cream makers. The JFTC raided six ice cream makers this week on suspicions they were colluding to artificially drive up the price of ice cream.

The firms have allegedly formed a cartel and improperly raised prices by 5-10% in lockstep on several occasions in recent years. Three of the accused firms, including the maker of the popular Hello Panda snacks, have stated they will cooperate with the investigation. (BBC)

This is one of the deepest and longest drawdowns for quality investing in decades

Uncomfortable? Yes.
Unprecedented? No.

History shows these periods are part of the journey, but not necessarily a reason to abandon discipline. Over the long term, quality has outperformed other styles with relative smoother drawdowns and better downside protection. But it also lags around a third of the time, often when markets turn more speculative. That’s exactly what makes moments like this so challenging… and so important.

Do you stay the course when it matters most? Access the full data and analysis.

Your last-minute tax checklist

As we head into the end of the financial year, we’ve assembled six tips and tricks to help you make the most of your tax return on a recent episode of Equity Mates Investing. 

1. Check your capital gains positions and harvest losses. Selling your positions that are sitting at a loss can offset your capital gains this year — just don’t sell and immediately rebuy the same asset, as this is a restricted sale called a wash sale.

2. Top up your super. Log into MyGov and see how much unused concessional contribution cap space you have available, and make contributions if you’re able to. Super is the highest-impact lever most investors aren’t making the most of.

3. Prepay investment loan interest. If you have a margin loan or investment property loan, you may be able to prepay up to 12 months of interest, granting you a a tax deduction. If you expect to earn less next year, claiming the deduction at a higher tax rate this year will be more tax effective.

Catch the remaining three tips and tricks below:

• Equity Mates Investing: Stocks and bonds are moving in sync, and we’re finding out why with PIMCO’s Sam Watkins. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

• Buy or Sell: Ally Selby hosts Luke Laretive and Hayden Beamish to take a look at three stocks our community can’t get enough of, plus two of our guests’ most speculative picks. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)