📈 Origin Energy shares fall after data breach | France bans social media for teens

The Big Picture

• France bans social media for teens. France will become the first European country and the second globally to ban social media for under-15s, with parliament approving a law requiring age verification from January 2027. France follows Australia, which banned under-16s in December. However 7 out of 10 children who had accounts before Australia's ban are still reported to have some access to the platforms. (BBC)
  
  

• Trump threatens nuclear site attack as oil hits US$91 a barrel. President Trump has warned the US will soon strike an Iranian nuclear site, as the conflict enters its 11th straight day of strikes. Oil rose to US$91 a barrel on the back of the news with Goldman Sachs warning the price could soar to US$120 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted into late 2026. (FT)
  
  

• US spend in Iran war continues to blow out. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has reported that the Iran war has cost US$37.5 billion to date, up from a US$25 billion estimate in late April before the temporary ceasefire. He is now requesting up to US$70 billion in emergency spending to cover further war costs. (NYT)
  
  

• Labor collected $4 million in gambling donations in past five years. The donations included $1.5 million in the last election, as it delayed and delivered a watered down version of the late MP Peta Murhpy’s recommendation for a full crackdown on betting advertising. The news highlights the tension between Labor's financial ties to the gambling industry and growing demands from its own members and the broader public for tougher reform. (SMH)

Companies in the news

• Origin Energy suffers customer data breach as shares fall. Australia’s largest energy provider is investigating a security incident that may have resulted in unauthorised access to customer data. Origin Energy has more than 4.7 million customers which may have been impacted, the company says investigations are ongoing. Shares were down 1.88% at the end of trading yesterday. (ABC)
  
  

• OpenAI's models hacked a digital library without human assistance. The company has revealed that two of its AI models went walkabout last week and hacked a popular digital library of AI technology, while being tested for cybersecurity capabilities. There is growing concern in the industry that AI models designed to find security flaws can find ways to launch attacks faster than defenders can respond. (NYT)
  
  

• Anthropic denies ABC deal after broadcaster reveals content talks. The creator of Claude has denied negotiations with the ABC after the public broadcaster revealed the AI company had held discussions about licensing its radio and audio content to train its models. The denial comes as Australian media executives accused AI giants of deliberately delaying copyright negotiations to avoid paying for news content they depend on. (AFR)
  
  

• Novo Nordisk sues Eli Lilly over misleading advertising. The maker of Ozempic is suing Eli Lilly, accusing it of running ad campaigns that created "the misleading impression" that its Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs outperform Wegovy and Ozempic. Novo alleges Eli Lilly compared the highest approved doses of its own drugs against lower doses of Novo's, while leaving out higher-dose options. Eli Lilly said it stands "firmly behind our advertising." (BBC)
  
  

• Liverpool in talks to sell 30% stake valuing club at AU$8.6 billion. Fenway Sports Group, who also own the Boston Red Sox, is in talks to sell a 30% stake in the English Premier League side. The deal would deliver a handy return for Fenway Sports Group which paid around AU$576 million to acquire the club in 2010. (The Guardian)

Have you got your ticket to FinFest 2026?

The market is closed and the bar is open. Come trade ideas at Australia’s biggest investing festival.

1,200 people have already secured their tickets to FinFest. Make sure you do before they sell out.

You’ll hear from some of Australia’s best investors and entrepreneurs and leave with the knowledge and confidence to take the next step in your investing journey.

This is going to be big. You don’t want to miss this.

2026 FIFA World Cup becomes most lucrative in history

FIFA is set to announce record revenues of $21.4 billion (US$15bn) from the 2026 World Cup, which would significantly exceed its pre-tournament projection of $16 billion (US$11bn). It also became the highest revenue earning tournament in history eclipsing the Qatar 2022 tournament which generated $11 billion (US$7.6bn).

The increased revenue was largely due to the increased tournament format where 48 teams competed as opposed to usual 32, resulting in 104 matches compared to 64. Hospitality and ticketing was also said to drive much of the surplus, especially with the secondary market as FIFA took 15% of the purchase price from the buyer and 15% from the seller. FIFA president Gianni Infantino has already floated expanding the tournament to 64 teams in 2030. (The Guardian | CNBC)

Property vs Shares after the budget changes

Financial adviser Alex Luck from Everest modelled this question for the Equity Mates community after the federal budget proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.

I have $100,000 to invest. Does property still make sense over shares under the new rules?

Alex: Leverage still makes sense. That is the key takeaway. The new rules do move the margins a little, but they do not make a massively significant difference to the overall outcome.

If you put $100,000 into shares via VDHG and held for 10 years at a long-term average return of around 9.5%, you do well. But if you use that same $100,000 as a deposit on a $500,000 investment property, provided that property returns above 5% per year, property still wins. And that is purely because of the power of leverage. You are putting in $100,000 but you have $500,000 compounding in the market.

The catch is the holding costs. Under the new rules, negative gearing on established properties is removed, which means the after-tax cost of holding an established property has roughly doubled to around $15,000 per year. That is where it starts to get difficult, particularly for people on average incomes whose borrowing capacity takes a hit when the bank looks at those numbers.

The budget has not made property investing impossible. It has just made it harder to get started, and harder to hold.

Want to work with an adviser like Alex to model your own property versus shares decision? Fill out the form on our website and we'll match you with one of our hand-picked advisers to help you get started.

Want to work with an adviser like Alex to model your own property versus shares decision? Fill out the form on our website and we’ll match you with one of our hand-picked advisers to help you get started.

• Robots are moving off the factory floor and into everyday life. On Equity Mates Investing we explore why robotics could be the next frontier of the AI revolution, from autonomous dark factories in China to humanoid robots in warehouses, aged care and the home. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

• & On Get Started Investing Jess chats with Francesca. At just 18 years old, she set herself a four-year plan: graduate with two degrees, save $150,000, buy an investment property, secure a remote job and build a share portfolio! At 24 now, she’s achieved every one of those goals and more! Find out how in today’s How I Got Started ep (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)