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📈 Oil price close to pre-war levels | NRL nears $5 billion deal

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The Big Picture

  • US and Iran trade strikes in Strait of Hormuz. The parties have been giving ships conflicting directions about the route to take through the contested waterway. On Thursday, Iran fired on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship that didn’t take Iran’s preferred route. In reply, the US launched strikes against Iran. (ABC)

  • Despite strikes, oil price nears pre-war levels. Even the fresh strikes were not enough to stop oil’s drop. Brent Crude briefly dropped below $73 a barrel, its lowest level since the war started on 28 February. (BBC)

  • Australia’s budget deficit cut in half. The deficit for the year so far is $10.9 billion, better than the $18.5 billion that had been forecast for this point of the year. Higher tax revenue from high commodity prices and low unemployment has been a big driver of the improvement. (AFR)

  • Trump warns of fresh tariffs. The US President warned he would impose 100% tariffs on countries that levy a digital-services tax on American tech companies. He threatened that this new 100% tariff would supersede any existing trade deals. (Reuters)

Companies in the news

  • Nine and Foxtel near $5 billion NRL deal. The reported deal would value the NRL broadcast rights at $700 million a year, and give Nine exclusive rights to the Grand Final and State of Origin until 2034. If signed, this would be bigger than the AFL’s $4.5 billion, 7 year deal that runs until 2031. (AFR)

  • South Korean chipmakers plunge. Samsung dropped 5% and SK Hynix fell 8% on Friday pushing the overall South Korean index down 6%. This came as South Korean media reported the two companies would be announcing hundreds of billions of dollars of new investments this week. (Taipei Times)

  • Apple seeks memory chips from banned sources. In a sign of how desperate tech companies are for memory chips, Apple is lobbying the Trump Administration to allow it to buy memory chips from CXMT, a blacklisted Chinese company. This comes after Apple raised prices of MacBooks and iPads due to increased memory prices. (FT)

  • OpenAI access asked to limit access to new GPT-5.6 model. The US government has pressured OpenAI to limit the release of its latest model to a small group of partners, before it is released more broadly. Meanwhile, Anthropic is still suspending access to its latest Mythos model after a US government order to limit access to foreign nationals. (WSJ)

  • Volkswagen to cut 100,000 jobs. The German carmaker is struggling to compete with cheaper Chinese electric vehicles and is reportedly planning to shut 4 factories as a result. (Reuters | FT)

Air conditioning becomes a hot topic in France

Europe is sweating through another sweltering summer. With temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius, a debate over the best way to keep cool has erupted in French politics.

In 2022, just 19% of households in Europe had air-conditioning units. This compares to 37% across the world or 78% in North America. Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing Rassemblement National party, announced a “massive air-conditioning plan” to change this if she was elected President.

Rival Presidential hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon came out against the air conditioning plan, arguing instead for more green spaces and renovating buildings for better temperature control. Given that France logged its hottest day ever on record last Tuesday, it might be time to consider all of the above. (FT)

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Financial Red Flags to Watch

This is a clip from an Equity Mates interview with Glen Hare, financial adviser and cofounder of Fox & Hare.

Question: What are some red flags or early warning signs that a partner might not be financially compatible?

Glen: There would be three, I would argue that probably stand out to me the most;

  1. Hiding income or, or certain expenses

  2. Understanding your partner's relationship with bad debt. So what am I referring to? You know, credit cards, personal loans, and understanding their willingness to focus on that and, you know, bring that down at, at a household level, noting the impact that may have on their future goals. And the third would be

  3. The reluctance to talk about it. And my caveat to that though is money doesn't necessarily need to be the conversation, but the goals do. The better you are at defining the goals and making them specific, with dollar figures, and articulating how the financial decisions you're making is enabling you, say, to take 12 months off to start a family. That's gonna be far more exciting than, than again, the money conversation.

Want to watch the full clip with Glen Hare? Check it out on the Equity Mates Clips YouTube channel.

  • Tune in to today’s Equity Mates Investing as we discuss oil’s round trip back to pre-war in Iran levels and check in the Community Portfolio, are we still beating the market? (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)