📈 Nearly 3 million Aussies are getting a pay raise | Anthropic confidentially files for IPO

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The Big Picture

• Nearly three million Australians are getting a pay rise. The Fair Work Commission has raised Australia’s minimum wage by 6% and minimum award pay by 4.75% starting 1 July. Unions are supportive of the move, but businesses have raised concerns about further raising operating costs. (ABC)
  
  

• ATO issues warning to Australians as tax time nears. The tax office warned taxpayers to stop claiming personal expenses as work-related in tax returns, saying they using AI tools to crackdown. Property investors and crypto owners were also cautioned about appropriate expenses and filings. (ABC)
  
  

• El Nino and energy crisis combine to halve Australian wheat crops. Rising fuel costs are expected to shrink the Queensland and NSW crop areas by 35% and 29%, respectively. This, combined with rising fertiliser costs and drier conditions from a potential El Nino, has cut Australia’s total wheat forecast by nearly 50%. (AFR)
  
  

• Australians dead last in trusting AI, says tech minister. Assistant Technology Minister Andrew Charlton cited statistics stating 78% of Australians are worried about negative outcomes from AI, saying Australia must ensure Aussies feel AI is working for them. (AFR)
  
  

• Banking industry up in arms against crypto-friendly US bill. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon pledged to fight against the CLARITY Act, a proposed bill that major banks argue would allow stablecoin issuers to pay interest to holders, effectively making them a bank without any of the tight regulations. (Fox)

Companies in the news

• Anthropic files for IPO, heating up race against OpenAI. Anthropic confidentially filed with the SEC, so no details are available, but the pressure is now on OpenAI. Anthropic recently hit a US$965 billion valuation, passing OpenAI at US$852 billion. Both AI firms will be competing for public capital after SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO this month, so going public first is crucial. (NYT)
  
  

• Banks drag down ASX on mixed Middle East signals. ANZ (down 3%), Westpac (down 1.6%), and NAB (down 0.9%) led the slide as ongoing housing worries and conflicting US-Iran messages left investors uneasy. The ASX 200 was down 1% before recovering to a 0.1% loss. (AFR)
  
  

• Strong copper prices send BHP to all-time highs. Copper neared US$14,000 on the London Metal Exchange, sending BHP up 1.4% to a record $63.37. Rio Tinto hit its second highest close ever, rising 1.5% to $191.37 (AFR)
  
  

• Investors foot the US$80bn bill for Google’s AI spend. Alphabet will raise US$80 billion in equity, underpinned by a US$10 billion sale to Berkshire Hathaway. Alphabet plans to spend up to US$190 billion on capital expenditure, largely in AI, and recently took on US$85 billion in debt to help fund the build-out. (FT)
  
  

• Florida sues OpenAI for pursuing profits over safety. The sweeping lawsuit comes as Florida criminally investigates whether ChatGPT played a part in a mass shooting last year. OpenAI faces a similar lawsuit in Canada, wherein it failed to report the behaviour of an eventual mass shooter. (BBC)
  
  

• Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time since 2022. After famously tweeting “Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin”, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor is selling US$2.5 million of Bitcoin to pay dividends. Bitcoin fell 2% on the news and is now down 42% from its all-time high of US$126,000. (CNBC)

Condom crackdown hits Durex sales

Regulatory risk is not what you think of when you think of risks faced by a condom company, yet Durex is feeling the heat as China removes its tax exemption for condoms. The reason: a declining birth rate.

China’s population shrank for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, and China is moving against condoms on multiple fronts. Not only has the tax exemption been removed, condom marketing has also been restricted. The measures have have hit Durex in the income statement, causing China sales to fall 5% after growing 40% last year. (FT)

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Is the budget panic overblown?

On yesterday’s episode of Equity Mates Investing, financial adviser Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth shared his thoughts on investor reactions to the budget.

Do you think there's been any overreaction to some of the budget proposals?

Charlie: Yeah, I think the overreaction is the CGT rules, if we're really honest. So number one, most of your gains are going to be proportionately still taxed under the discount rate. And secondly, the inflation-based rate that's being used or the CPI based rate, the reality is it's going to be two or 300 basis points above what the current tax rates are. So it's not that profound a change.

It's not like, "Oh, I just won't ever invest in anything ever again and I'll put all my money in cash forever and ever and get a four and a half percent return forever and ever because I don't want to pay capital gains tax." Well, you still get to kind of keep most of it. So I think that's a significant overreaction from some of the investment community.

Some of the founder and small business stuff is more profound, but again, I think that's under significant review. But for most people who are holding investments in ETFs and have been building up over a period of time, the changes just aren't that stuck.

Want to work with an adviser like Charlie to find out what the budget means for you? Fill out the form on our website and we’ll match you with one of our hand-picked advisers to help you get started.

• Basis Points: Take one look at the holdings of some ethical funds, and it becomes clear ESG is more of a side salad than the main course. Alison George from Australian Ethical joins Ally Selby on today’s episode to talk about how experts spot a fake in the world of ethical investing. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)