📈 National debt hits $1 trillion | Moderna stock triples on cancer breakthrough

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The Big Picture

• Australian government debt hits $1 trillion. Federal debt is now equal to one-third of Australia’s GDP, and Australian taxpayers will pay nearly $30 billion in interest on that debt this financial year. Not to be outdone, the US government hit US$40 trillion in debt the same day, roughly 126% of US GDP. The US now spends over US$1.1 trillion annually on interest, more than its military spending. (FT | AFR)
  
  

• Yields drop globally as Treasury announces buybacks. In an effort to contain sky-high borrowing costs on its US$40 trillion pile of debt, the US Treasury announced it will “at least double” its repurchases of long-term government debt. Investor confidence rose and low-term government debt yields inched down in the US, UK, Japan, and Australia. (FT)
  
  

• Australian unemployment unexpectedly jumps. Unemployment hit a five-year high of 4.5% in July as the economy lost 15,800 jobs; consensus forecasts had expected 4.4%. Elevated interest rates are being blamed, as expensive debt causes businesses to tighten up their budgets. Other employment measures also worsened, with underemployment rising and participation rate falling. (AFR)
  
  

• $226 billion of cheap Covid debt comes due for Australian states. Victoria, NSW, Queensland, and South Australia took out an estimated $227 billion in cheap bonds during the pandemic, paying interest rates under 3%. As that debt starts to come due, the states face a choice: pay down that debt or watch its interest payments jump from $4 billion annually to $12 billion. (AFR)
  
  

• Councils outraged as NSW overrides data centre objections. The state government has removed the ability of councils to reject data centre proposals by referring them to the Independent Planning Commission. While this improves investment attractiveness, councils now have one less tool to object to data centres. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Gambling reforms pass Senate and House. Labor’s gambling reform bill passed the Senate with amendments and passed the House of Representatives thanks to a deal between Labor and the Coalition. The deal includes several gambling advertising measures including an opt-out register, but anti-gambling advocates say it doesn’t go far enough. (TDA)
  
  

• Trump reverses course on Canada tariffs. After threatening 50% tariffs on neighboring Canada, the US president has backed down and says the two nations, which have one of the largest trade relationships of any two countries, are now finalising a trade deal. US tariffs on Canadian steel and cars would also drop. (BBC)
  

Companies in the news

• Moderna stock triples on skin cancer breakthrough. An experimental skin cancer therapy produced successful trial results and could potentially provide custom treatments for patients based on their individual tumors, with regulatory approval expected next year. The stock soared on the announcement, up 203% at its peak before settling at around a 165% gain. (FT)
  
  

• ASX earnings: Commercial real estate stands strong. Two commercial real estate companies reported strong earnings yesterday: Goodman Group announced 16% increase in operating profit, bolstered by an uptick in data centre demand. Meanwhile, property revaluations sent Dexus’ profits up over 250%. (GMG | Dexus)
  
  

• Megaport suffers $39 million loss despite revenue leap. Not all was well in the data centre world. Networking firm Megaport saw revenue jump 37%, but a $32 million increase in depreciation contributed to a net loss of $39 million. The company also increased capital expenditure forecasts to $1.4 billion, which spooked investors and sent the stock down 4% on the day. (Motley Fool)
  
  

• Google inks US$12 billion chips-for-equity deal with Marvell. Chipmaker Marvell offered Google a US$12.2 billion equity stake in exchange for developing Google’s hotly-demanded custom chips, which could send US$120 billion of revenue towards Marvell. It adds to the list of increasingly intertwined relationships and circular deals within the AI industry that have drawn scrutiny. (Reuters)
  
  

• eSafety regulator flexes enforcement powers on Roblox. The eSafety Commissioner will be able to audit and sue the highly popular game after tests found adults could still contact children despite safety measures. Roblox is one of the most highly played games on earth, particularly among children, and has been highly criticised internationally for its failures to prevent grooming. (ABC)

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Carlsberg: The Non-Beer Beer Company

With alcohol sales plummeting, the 179-year-old Danish brewer is finding success outside of its usual business lines. Sales volumes of soft drinks and alcohol-free beer rose 8% and 11%, respectively, while beer volumes fell 1%.

Carlsberg acquired soft drinks company Britvic early last year, doubling its soft drink sales to 30% of revenue in 2025. The move worked: First-half revenues are up 2.6% despite the fall in beer sales. (FT)

Burry vs. Bulls: Who comes out on top?

On a recent episode of Equity Mates Investing, we looked at one of the world’s most famous short sellers, Michael Burry, and how his bets against AI are going.
(Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

Michael Burry famously bet against the American housing market right before it crashed in 2008. This earned him wealth, praise, and even a spot in the film The Big Short, where he is memorably portrayed by Christian Bale.

But now Burry has problem: He can’t stop betting against things. In the past decade, he has publicly declared many impending market crashes, pointing to passive investing, high valuations, speculative bubbles and more.

In that same decade, if he would have just invested in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, he’d be up over 300%.

One specific example is particularly painful. He revealed a bet against industrial equipment manufacturer Caterpillar a few months ago. Three weeks ago, Caterpillar reported its best quarter ever. The stock is up over 100% in the past year.

Sometimes optimism is all you need.

• Equity Mates Investing: Are dividends overrated? Not all income is created equal, and Helen Mason joins us to explain why. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

• Buy or Sell: You asked, and we’re answering. Two experts are analysing the top stocks as selected by out community on Facebook. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)