📈 Inflation falls but interest rate hike looms | Woolworths turnaround plan bearing fruit

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The Big Picture

• Australian inflation falls but interest rate hike now looms. Australia's annual headline inflation rate eased to 3.5% in July, down from 3.8% in June, but came in slightly above the 3.3% economists had expected, keeping the door open for another RBA rate rise in the upcoming September meeting. Housing was the largest contributor, followed by food and recreation. Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O'Donaghoe was quoted in saying, "we now expect one more hike by 25bps by the RBA at its upcoming meeting in September." (ABC)
  
  

• Australia’s sovereign wealth fund delivers 14.8% growth as CEO steps down. The Future Fund saw a $37 billion increase in assets to $356 billion over the year, driven by strong equity markets in emerging markets alongside exposure to commodities and private equity. CEO Raphael Arndt announced he will step down at the end of 2026 after six years in the role. The Future Fund still has plenty of catching up to do on the world stage with Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sitting at around $3.2 trillion in assets. (Capital Brief)
  
  

• Canada hits back with reciprocal tariffs on US$20 billion of US goods. Canada has announced counter-tariffs of up to 50% on American products including steel, furniture, fresh tuna and clothing. Canadian finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne described the measures as "proportionate" and "strategic". Donald Trump responded on Truth Social, calling Canada "the most difficult and unreasonable" country he deals with and threatening to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America. (BBC)
  
  

• Oil falls as countries close in on Strait of Hormuz deal. Iran and Oman have announced a proposed framework for a navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude below US$86 a barrel as hopes of a partial reopening grow. The US has held back on imposing secondary sanctions on other nations trading with Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning of an "economic D-Day". (CNBC)
  
  

• China orders largest car recall in history over hidden door handles. China has announced it will recall more than four million cars over hidden door handles that the government believes trap passengers during crashes. The recall follows several fatal incidents in China, including a 2025 crash where passengers were allegedly trapped after the doors failed to open. Tesla is recalling nearly three million vehicles, with Chinese manufacturers Xiaomi, XPeng and Geely recalling a further 750,000. (BBC)

Companies in the news

• Woolworths turnaround plan bearing fruit as supermarket outpaces Coles. Australia’s largest supermarket saw sales growth of 4.6%, outpacing Coles' 3.7% growth. CEO Amanda Bardwell's turnaround plan, focused on lower prices, better product availability and growing online sales is starting to have an impact. Big W also returned to profitability for the first time since 2024, moving from a $33 million loss to a $64 million profit. Company shares closed up 3.4%. (AFR)
  
  

• Nine Entertainment sees streaming and publishing offset TV decline. Nine Entertainment saw net profit of $142.4 million, up 7%, as growth in Stan streaming and digital publishing absorbed a weak free-to-air advertising market. Free-to-air television now accounts for less than 25% of Nine's earnings, as the company believes streaming, outdoor advertising and digital publishing will make up 70% of earnings in 2027. Shares ended the day up 7%. (AFR)
  
  

• Foot Locker owner plunges 31% as shoppers cut spending. Dick's Sporting Goods, the owner of Foot Locker, warned that consumers were "even more cautious than expected due to the geopolitical environment" and that the industry was carrying far too much inventory. The company severely cut its sales and profit outlook as the result adds to a growing picture of US consumer stress, with July retail sales falling 0.6%, the biggest monthly drop in more than a year (FT)
  
  

• Lovisa shines as WiseTech and Domino's continue to disappoint. Lovisa defied the consumer slowdown with net profit rising 10.7% to $95.6 million, driven by expansion in Europe and the US, sending shares up more than 11%. WiseTech saw an 11% slide in net profit to $178.7 million, as operating expenses surged 92%. Domino's posted a $134 million full-year loss and warned same-store sales were down to start the new financial year, as the company continues with a strategic shift away from discounts to improve franchisee profitability. (AFR | AFR | AFR)
  
  

• SpaceX announces US$100 billion launch facility in Louisiana. Elon Musk’s rocket company announced plans to build its largest launch site yet, with construction of the facility due to start next year. The US$100 billion project will support thousands of Starship flights annually to Earth orbit, the Moon and Mars, while adding more than 3,000 direct jobs and 8,100 indirect roles to the region. (BBC)

Time is running out to secure your FinFest 2026 tickets!

Less than 25% of tickets remain for Australia's biggest investing festival, back at Carriageworks in Sydney on Saturday 24 October.

Hear from Joe Aston, Scott Phillips, Andrew Brown and many more of Australia's best investors and entrepreneurs. Whether you are just getting started or have been investing for decades, FinFest is the one event on the Australian calendar you do not want to miss.

Grab your ticket before it is too late.

OnlyFans owner pocketed nearly $1 billion in dividends before death

The adult content creation platform generated revenue of $2.2 billion and pre-tax profit of $998 million in the year to November 2025, with only 47 employees. Nearly $9 billion was paid out to its 2.5 million active creators after OnlyFans took its 20% cut.

The majority of profits went to owner Leonid Radvinsky in dividends worth $977 million before his death from cancer earlier this year, with a 16% stake subsequently sold to San Francisco private equity firm Architect Capital, valuing the company at $4.5 billion, seen by some as low given its profitability. (FT)

Investors want income without taking on excessive risk and fixed income could be the answer. With yields still elevated relative to recent history, bonds are once again offering attractive returns alongside genuine diversification benefits. 

PIMCO believes investors can now potentially earn equity-like returns from high quality fixed income, without relying solely on equities. It's why many are reassessing the role bonds can play in a portfolio today. PIMCO is one of the world's leading active fixed income managers, with a broad range of Australian solutions, including actively managed ETFs, designed to help meet different investment objectives.

To learn more about PIMCO's range of income and fixed income solutions, including their active ETFs, visit pimco.com.au. Read the PDS and TMD and consider whether the product is right for you. PIMCO Australia Management Limited is the issuer

2/3rds of Australian returns came from dividends in past 20 years

Bryce and Ren sat down with Dr. Don Hampson, founder of Plato Investment Management and self-described dividend doctor, to talk all things income investing on a recent episode of Equity Mates Investing. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

Many Australian investors spend their time watching share prices, but according to Don Hampson, they are looking at the wrong number.

Over the last 20 years, the capital growth on the ASX 200 has averaged just 3.5% per year. Two-thirds of the total return from the Australian share market over that period came from dividends, including franking credits.

Meaning if you are in the accumulation phase, reinvesting your dividends is crucial, as the income component of your return is compounding just as powerfully as the capital growth. And for investors who want to one day replace their salary with investment income, it turns out what may be considered the boring part of the market has been doing most of the heavy lifting all along.

• Singapore is offering $76k per child to reverse record-low birth rates, we unpack a community question around factor ETFs and dive into China’s tech frenzy on Equity Mates Investing. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)

• Jess chats with Ryan on today’s How I Got Started. After taking the plunge into owning his own business and moving away from a stable, Ryan shares how that’s impacted his investing strategy and the highs and lows of being a small business owner. Check out the latest episode of Get Started Investing in the following links. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)