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The Big Picture
Copper hits record high on supply and tariff fears. Copper extended a 17% rally this year hitting a new record high of $US14,635 a tonne driven by constrained supply and growing demand from data centres, renewable energy projects and power grids. Traders have been rushing copper into the US ahead of potential tariffs, draining global stockpiles and pushing prices to record highs. (AFR)
US sinks Iranian oil tanker as oil price climbs. US forces struck five Iranian oil tankers yesterday, sinking one, after Iran twice targeted an American warship. Iran retaliated by firing missiles at a US base in Jordan. Brent crude rose to $99.35 a barrel, it’s highest point since July, as the escalation intensified. (BBC)
US bans Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles. The White House announced the bans yesterday as Canada's US$20 billion in retaliatory tariffs hit hundreds of American products. Prime Minister Mark Carney vowed Canada would not change course, saying the strategy was about "ensuring that no country can hold us hostage". (The Guardian)
Students who use AI chatbots daily score lowest in global science test. New research has found students who never use generative AI outperform even occasional users in international science assessments. Daily users scored the lowest, though students who use AI specifically to "help them learn" performed almost as well as non-users. Half of Australian students reported using AI at least weekly, above the OECD average of 45.5%. (Capital Brief)
Government to crack down on financial abuse through tax and super. The Assistant Treasurer has unveiled a number reforms targeting offenders of financial abuse. The changes include tougher penalties for pressuring a partner into company directorships to rack up tax debts in their name, and new ATO powers to stop illegal withdrawals from self-managed superannuation funds. (ABC)
Companies in the news
OpenAI solves 90-year-old maths problem in 88 hours. 10,000 AI agents powered by an unreleased OpenAI model we said to have solved a key aspect of the Navier-Stokes equation. OpenAI said 130 billion tokens were used which would have cost nearly US$10 million. The news has already been mired in controversy, with a New York University professor alleging OpenAI only began working on the problem after receiving information about his own progress toward a solution. (BBC)
LIV Golf files for bankruptcy with US$500 million in liabilities. The Saudi Arabia-backed golf tournament has filed for bankruptcy after the Saudi Public Investment Fund confirmed it would stop funding at the end of the 2026 season. The bankruptcy is being used to shed debt obligations and relaunch as "LIV 2.0", with the reorganised league expected to emerge from the process in 2027 and be majority owned by players. (FT)
Metcash tobacco sales surge amid government clampdown. The government's new Illicit Tobacco Taskforce is driving consumers back to legal channels after years of black market trade sparked by Australia's world-leading tobacco taxes. Metcash reported an 11.7% sales growth in the first 18 weeks of FY27. The company also claims to have offset at least $65 million of the roughly $1.8 billion in tobacco sales lost since 2021 to illicit trade through other parts of its business. (AFR)
Cricket Australia opens Big Bash to private investment. The Melbourne Renegades will become the first Big Bash franchise sold to private investors, with Cricket Australia announcing the sale process on Tuesday. The success of the Renegades sale will determine whether other franchises follow, with the Big Bash aiming to make the league a competitor to the Indian Premier League. (ABC)
Meta launches AI personal assistant Muse. Muse will have access to users social media activity to make personalised suggestions, from turning a saved Instagram recipe into a grocery list to planning a hike based on a WhatsApp chat. The launch comes as Meta faces investor pressure over its US$145 billion capital expenditure plan focused on AI infrastructure. (FT)
US accuses DeepSeek and Alibaba of stealing AI models. The National Security Agency and FBI have jointly accused multiple Chinese firms including DeepSeek and Alibaba of extracting proprietary knowledge from US AI models at an "industrial scale”. The accusation involves Chinese firms training their own AI systems using outputs from American models to replicate their capabilities without building them from scratch. (AFR)
Have you got your ticket to FinFest 2026?
One of the world's most high-profile fund managers sits down with Bryce and Ren in an exclusive conversation, screening at FinFest on 24 October.
Hear Bill unpack markets, investing and where he sees opportunity right now. Who knows, Ren may even Boost Bill's Budget while they're at it.
More than 1,500 people have already locked in their tickets to Australia's biggest investing festival. The market is closed and the bar is open. Don't miss out.
French paintings worth €18 million stolen in museum heist
Two thieves broke into the Renoir Museum in the south of France before dawn on Tuesday seizing four paintings valued at €9 million each. Fortunately for the museum and fine art lovers, the thieves dropped two of the paintings when making their escape in the museum garden.
It comes following a string of high-profile art heists across Europe that has raised questions about museum security. The mayor warned the incident was evidence of "increasingly organised and determined criminals" targeting art institutions and called on the French government for more funding to protect cultural heritage. (BBC)
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The ASX Is Flat. But Under the Hood, One Sector Is Up 50%
Bryce and Ren sat down with Tom Wickenden, investment strategist at Betashares, to unpack the big themes for the second half of 2026 on a recent Equity Mates Investing episode. (Spotify | Apple | YouTube)
If you have been looking at the ASX200 this year and feeling underwhelmed, you are not alone. The headline index has been essentially flat. But that top line number is hiding an interesting story underneath it.
The Australian materials sector is up almost 50% over the past year. And the reason is not iron ore. Five years ago, a conversation about Australian materials stocks was really a conversation about China. Were they still building? Was the property market holding up? How was iron ore demand tracking? That conversation has changed as copper and gold now account for more than 60% of the Australian materials sector's earnings, well ahead of iron ore.
BHP and Rio Tinto both now generate more earnings from copper than from iron ore. And copper sits at the intersection of three of the biggest structural themes in markets right now being the energy transition, the AI data centre buildout and defence technology.
So why is the ASX flat if materials are up 50%? Financials are dragging in the other direction. Australia's big banks focussed on the mortgage market after the GFC and that market is now under pressure after multiple interest rate rises and budget changes. Meanwhile global banks are reporting record profits from diversified businesses in capital markets and investment banking.
& a recent survey by the RBA found that most Australians don’t understand the relationship between interest rates and inflation. We’ve broken down four things you need to know. (Read the full article here)
